Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 26th November)

This week through next week (Dec 27 - Jan 5)

We should see some inconsistent groundswell on the build today, with it coming in nicely across the Margaret River region through Sunday before easing Monday.

It’s only due to be moderate in size but the magnets should be fun with light morning offshore winds and weak S/SW winds this afternoon, S/SE tomorrow afternoon.

The swell is due to ease through tomorrow afternoon, with small levels of background energy through Friday afternoon and Saturday.

This will be ahead of a moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell Sunday, Monday. The source is very distant, that being a strong polar low that fired up to the south of South Africa late last week.

The swell is due to arrive Sunday morning, though building into the afternoon and more noticeable later in the day, easing Monday.

It’s expected to be a little smaller and slower than the current building swell, though weak E/SE trades will kick in from late week, persisting through the weekend.

For the rest of the week there’s no major swell due, but the longer term outlook is a little better. More on this Thursday.

Looking across the Maldives and we've got a mix of SE trade-swell and weak pulses of E/NE monsoon swell from persistent, strong E/NE-NE winds setting up camp across Sri Lanka, persisting all week.

This will bring locally tricky and poor winds for east facing breaks across the central and northern atolls, more variable to the south.

Also in the mix should be some good mid-period S'ly swell building today as some strong S'ly groundswell from yesterday eases.

Another dose of good sized S'ly groundswell is due later in the weekend, with possibly more size later next week as the storm track to the south of South Africa fires up.

Eastern Indonesia:

Inconsistent SW groundswell building today, reaching an inconsistent 4-5ft+ across the magnets, easing Wednesday from a similar size.

Slightly smaller, less consistent SW groundswell building Sunday afternoon, reaching 4-5ft, easing from a similar size Monday.

Light, variable winds most of the period, tending S/SW this afternoon, S/SE tomorrow afternoon. Weak E/SE-SE trades from later week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Inconsistent SW groundswell today to 4-5ft on the swell magnets, easing. 

Similar sized SW groundswell filling in Sunday, easing Monday.

Variable winds this period, tending S/SE-SE across southern locations most of this week. More variable winds across southern locations on the weekend and next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Weak SE trade-swell mixed in with E/NE windswell all this week to 3ft on the sets, easing on the weekend.

Mid-period S'ly swell for today/Wednesday to 4-5ft across the southern atolls, easing later week.

Inconsistent S’ly groundswell for later Saturday, peaking Sunday to 4ft on the southern atolls. Easing swell into next week ahead of some new, strong S’ly groundswell next Thursday.

Stronger winds from E/NE across the northern and central atolls all week, weaker to the south, tending more NE Wednesday.

Winds shifting E/SE across northern and central locations Saturday/Sunday, S/SW to the south. Winds tending S/SW-SW across all locations next week.