Large NW groundswells for the Pipe Masters
Hawaii North Shore forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 8th December)
Best Days: Every day over the coming period until the weekend (experienced surfers only later Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday morning)
This week (Dec 8 - 11)
Well, what a weekend of waves! An XL swell pushed in from the Nprth Pacific lighting up the North Shore while also providing 15-20ft surf for the Pe'ahi Challenge.
The surf dropped gradually through the day and has continued to ease through today from 6ft+ this morning.
Tomorrow morning we'll fall in between swells but there should still be 4-6ft waves on offer through the morning ahead of a mix of moderate W/NW and larger NW groundswell into the afternoon.
The W/NW swell will be inconsistent and was generated off Japan in our far swell window, but a stronger and more vigorous front has since projected a fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds close towards Hawaii, generating a large and more powerful NW groundswell.
Both swells are due to arrive around the same time, and I feel the forecast models are over-cooking the peak in size across Hawaii as it incorrectly combines both the W/NW and NW groundswells.
In any case we're still due to see a large and powerful swell event, kicking strongly tomorrow afternoon, reaching the 12ft range late, peaking Wednesday morning to 12-15ft before tailing off into the afternoon.
The easing trend will be softened by a secondary reinforcing pulse of large NW groundswell from a embedded low on the backside of the storm producing a short-lived fetch of severe-gale to near storm-force W/NW winds.
This swell is due Thursday morning, keeping large 10ft+ sets hitting the North Shore before tailing off more noticeably Friday from 6-8ft.
Light E/NE trades are due to increase a touch tomorrow, becoming strong during the peak in swell Wednesday before slowly easing later Thursday and further into the end of the week and weekend while shifting E/SE.
Longer term, there's nothing significant due into the weekend, with the next considerable swell due to build Tuesday and peak Wednesday.
This will be a long-period but size limited swell, generated by a very strong low forming off Japan but tracking unfavourably north-east towards and then over the Aleutian Islands. As a result we're only expected to see inconsistent sets to 6-8ft maybe on dark Tuesday but more so Wednesday.
We'll have another look at this on Thursday though.
Comments
Just a clarification. The days/times above are Hawaii days/time yeah?
And do the pipe trials start on Wednesday 9th Hawaii time or is Wednesday 9th the start of the main event post pipe trials?
Yes, Hawaiin time Don, and everything kicks off tomorrow, Tuesday the 8th.
Sorry, my bad.....looked at the top of the WSL event page and it shows today's date and AEST (ie now).
So is "Everything" being the main event or the trials?
Trials
Craig why dont you call that peahi size 25ft ?
In general it looked in that 15-20ft, 30-40ft face range.
There were a couple of bigger bombs probably in that range Cam, but I wouldn't have called it flat 25ft as most waves weren't up around that 50ft face.
are they going to live steam the trials???
Nah I don't reckon the water will be warm enough
Gold mate. F'n gold.
Im pretty sure you must have lost the plot craig thats absurd bro ! Haha 15 ft !!! . How can there be claims of biggest ever jaws paddled ? . I think I under called it with 25 ft . Let me investigate what the hawaiians are saying it was ...
Surely it was a solid 25ft plus?!
If that was 15-20 well the waves I got to try out the ds on the other day must of been 4-6ft.
Really Craig??
Craig , you said Surgical Strike 1 were 6ft bombs...........Jaws was easy quadruple those waves at W.C. ?
I was terrified watching it, but here's Billy Kemper on a screamer.
It is deceptive, but bent over with legs spread, Billy K. is maybe 4 foot high.
Wave face height 30-35 foot?
What surfer feet size you want to call it is up to you.
The angle of the shot means it's definitely not underselling the wave size, perhaps the opposite.
I just call it 'too fkn big!'.
25 plus? 50ft+ faces, that's about 10x overhead.
Most of these photos linked below look 6-7x overhead (some only 4-5x overhead), that's 30 to say 40ft faces, ie 15-20ft.
https://www.swellnet.com/photos/swellnet-sessions/peahi-challenge-photos
This one looks in the 25ft range, but the others no..
U got the scraps pics there craig ! U can see heaps on insty .
Yeah this topic really needs addressing ! Some of the waves they got were previously only tow possible . The size were the biggest ever paddled at peahi . This is a true mistake people make who are just watching . And its a bad thing for many reasons , . Swellnet should learn something & to recalibrate the forecasts so you call it correctly , its been going on this is one of many times I seen this misjudgment from small wave surfers who haven't worked out yet . Might start a new thread !
Cam .
I didn't watch the early stuff . But the final looked like gregs wave may have scraped into the 20 ft range . ( mind you my work computer screen ratio is a bit too wide .
But even at home Marks looked big , but I'm uncertain it's bigger than Dorians waves fro. The other year or perhaps fig jam . But I'm still waiting to see good footage ( stills ) . Care to share some links to Insta images !?!
Goofy , I was told that day u were testing it was 1.6 kms as opposed to 3.2 !!! Hehe
Mark's was huge, one of those 25ft bombs for sure!
MMarks , dorians , gregs, & kempers , and a few more were far bigger than anything ridden at waimea ever . ( traditionally closes out over 25ft )
Haha 20ft ! Haha . See what I mean !
Haha Southey, well I did say the other day that it wasn't big for that place, just big for me.
Not making fun Bro . :-)
Just keeping a lid on it .;-))
All good mate, I realise that.
It was big enough to not want to get one on the head!
Maybe that could be another factor in calling wave height? How much out of ten you'd like to get one on the noggin?! :)
The yardstick for me is Brock Little's drop-skip-skip-stack in the 1990 Eddie - 30ft "Hawaiian". Different step up or 2 to the waves in this comp. But what would i know...
I have started a new thread to discuss this topic !
My opinion is not worth a pinch of shit, but I was thinking the same as Craig on this one.
That's bad news for Craig, unfortunately.
I have long held an opinion that wave size calling gets hugely distorted at the large end of the business, where the 'half and less than the wave face' starts to break down.
That's not to doubt the courage or anything else about what it takes to paddle out there, but from a fairly independent point of view, the size calling really does defy rational analysis at the upper end.
I agree batfink: the degree of error (over/under-calling) is magnified when waves get to this scale. Would be good to hear what the Hawaiians would call Mark's wave - legit 25 ft?
Most of the error is because it takes a bit to be accurate , its simply a skill that must be learned .