Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri March 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building S/SE windswell late Sat with S’ly winds
• Surf building further Sun as low moves towards Tasmania- large swells with fresh SE winds
• Elevated surf from Mon-Thurs as deep Tasman low sits NE of Tasmania- large SE-E/SE swells with fresh S/SE winds

Recap

Only small levels of S/SE swell hovering around 1-2ft through yesterday and today with light/variable winds yesterday, tending more N’ly today.

This weekend and next week (Mar 28- Apr 4)

No great change to the weekend f/cast.

Game of two halves for Sat with NW winds early and fun NE windswell to 2ft. Through the a’noon we’ll see a front/trough bring a stiff and gusty S’ly change with new short range S swell building to 4ft, smaller at protected location.

By Sun we’ll see a low forming off the South Coast with a strong SE infeed along the southern flank of the low. That will see strong S/SE winds through Sun and building swells from the same direction, pushing up into the 4-5ft range o/night Sat into Sun.

Into next week and we’re now looking at a very significant swell  next week as a deep low sits off the South or Gippsland Coast (see below) with severe gales to storm force winds aimed into the proximate south-eastern and eastern swell window. Concurrently, another Ross Sea ice shelf fetch will be peaking or just post-peak as a massive deep low forms NE of the Ross Sea on the weekend and develops storm force winds. We’ll deal with that one in a moment!

Deep Tasman low supplies large surf for Tas from Sun

Monday sees a mix of E and S/SE swells building to 4-5ft under fresh S/SE winds.

By Tues size will be up into the 6-8ft range from the E/SE with fresh S/SE winds continuing. Also showing through the day will be super long period S/SE swell from the Antarctic fetch. Sets will be buried in the mix but in the 3ft range and continuing into Wed.

Size from the Tasman low stays elevated into Wed with 6-8ft surf expected and winds from the S-S/SE easing as the low dissipates and moves away.

We’ll see a slow easing then into Thurs and small leftovers Fri.

Lots to digest, we’ll keep tabs on developments over the weekend and report back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!