North-eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri March 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• W/NW winds Sat with a small S groundswell
• Inconsistent S/SE groundswell later Mon and Tue with light N/NW winds
• Small S pulse later Wed, easing Thurs with light N’ly winds
• More S swell expected late next week

Recap

NE windswell built to a chunky 4ft yesterday a’noon under fresh N winds that tended more N/NW later in the day. Still some leftovers to today with early light winds before a S/SE change pushed through.

This weekend and next week (Mar 22 - 28)

No great change to the weekend forecast, which is looking very light on for swell energy. Very slack pressure gradients in the Tasman as a decaying trough and front move slowly north through Sat bringing a weak NW-SW flow through the morning , tending light S/SE in the a’noon. As Craig mentioned on Wed a poorly aligned low zipping across the Tasman may supply some flukey S swell Sat  but nothing more than 2ft is expected (if that).

Tiny surf expected into Sun and Mon.

Into next week and later Mon but more so Tues/Wed offers some potential with models picking up some long period S/SE groundswell generated by a slow moving polar low around the edge of the Antarctic ice shelf in the vicinity of the Ross Sea (see below). These swells can often over perform but it’s unlikely to offer more than the occ. 3ft set ie nothing requiring more than a standard shortboard. Other traces of long period S swell from a zonal low passing under the Tasman over the weekend offer some 2-3ft sets. Definitely worth a squizz at S facing beaches Tues under light winds, with sets extending into Wed morning before easing.

A frontal system Wed should supply a SW-S change and a small flush of S swell later Wed, easing Thurs.

Into later next week and more frontal systems passing under the state are strongly suggestive of small/medium S pulses, with either Fri or Sat looking to see size in the 3ft range.

We’ll see how that looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!