Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Feb 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

NE windswell peaks Tues with N winds tending NW before a SW-S change.

• S change Tues PM- with a spike in S swell Wed
• Small flush in S swell Fri, easing into Sat
• Another round of NE windswell likely Mon/Tues next week

Recap

Minor E swell to 1-2ft yesterday under light winds offered a wave for the keen. Size has dipped further into today with 1-1.5ft under light NW-NE winds tending light/variable in the a’noon.

This week and next week (Feb3 - Feb14)

We’ve got a standard summer synoptic pattern at the moment with an active monsoon trough stretched across the continent, extending in the west to TC Taliah off the Kimberley Coast and east to tropical lows off North QLD and near New Caledonia. A high pressure in the centre of the Tasman is directing SE-E winds across the sub-tropics, more NE in temperate regions extending down to the Island state. We’ll see more NE windswell episodes in the f/cast period.

In the short run we’ll see the current NE windswell event peak tomorrow morning. Expect size in the 3-4ft range with the occ. bigger set and mod/fresh N’ly winds tending NW before a S’ly change in the a’noon.

Source of NE windswell today and tomorrow

Winds then shift S-S/SE into Wed with the passage of a trough and front and a new flush in short range S swell to 3-4ft will be in the water under mod/fresh winds. We’ll see that S swell ease quickly through the day. Small amounts of NE swell will still be in the water for the early.

Expect minor surf Thurs, with small E/NE swell developing into the 1-2ft range in the a’noon, persisting into Fri before easing. Another trough brings a S’ly change Fri with a minor flush of new S swell up to 2ft. 

Into the weekend and not much action is expected Sat as high pressure drifts over the state into the Tasman with light winds and tiny surf. 

Even smaller Sun.

Next week we should see another round of NE windswell develop as high pressure moves NE of the state. Expect winds to freshen from the NE Mon and NE windswell to build during the day.

At this stage, size looks to peak Tues in the 4ft range.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s tracking. 

Seeya then.