Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Dec 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing swells for the weekend- mostly small S swells
• NE windswell building Mon to sizey levels, peaking Tues morning before easing
• Increase in short range S swell Wed under S’ly winds
• Easing S swell Thurs, with a sizey rebuild in SE swell Fri
• Slowly easing SE swells next weekend

Recap  

S’ly groundswell supplied some 2-3ft sets at S faience beaches under W/NW winds yesterday. Today has eased right back with a few 1-2ft leftovers under early NW winds now tending E/SE-SE.

This weekend and next week (Dec13- Dec21)

No great change to the weekend /f/cast. A weak trough in advance of a new high brings a variable flow through Sat with not much surf expected - just tiny little S swells to 1ft or less.

By Sun high pressure will be moving over the state so we’ll see a light/variable flow early before winds start to establish from the N-NE and become moderate during the a’noon.

That sets up for a solid spike in NE windswell through Mon as high pressure moves NE and a trough approaches. Winds will freshen from the N-NE on Mon and we’ll see NE windswell build from 2-3ft to 3-4ft in the a’noon. 

The fetch looks to increase o/night and reach peak speeds early morning with size to 4-5ft early Tues under NW tending W winds. Expect a fairly rapid roll-off from the peak in the a’noon.

A front in advance of a high moving through the Bight brings a fresh S’ly change for Wed with an increase in short range S swell to 2-3ft in the a’noon under mod/fresh S’ly winds.

We may see that swell hold into Thurs before easing, but models are still divergence over a trough of low pressure forming in the tasman. 

Either way we should see a rebuild in size Fri into Sat from a fetch developing in the southern Tasman (see below). 

Easing swells are then expected through next weekend.

We’ll see how that looks on Mon, until then have a great weekend!