Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon October 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Long period S swell Mon, easing Tues with onshore winds
• Low forming NE of Tas on Mon 
• Mod E/NE-E swells Tues/Wed
• Last pulse of E swell Thurs
• Developing sizey NE windswell Fri with fresh NE-N winds
• Easing swells Sat with W winds
• Small S swell spike Mon
• More NE windswell possible next week
• Small long range E/NE swell on the radar for next week

Recap 

A few fun waves from the S on Sat with size to 2ft under offshore winds. That swell eased through Sun and we’ve now got small leftovers to 1-2ft with S tending SE winds as a trough forms to the NE of the state. 

This week and next week (Oct 14- 25)

We’ve still got a dynamic week ahead as a trough currently off the Gippsland coast moves NE and develops into a broad surface low, backed by a high currently SW of Tasmania. Overall though, the surf potential has been toned down as windspeeds remain limiting and the system dissipates as it lingers in the Tasman. Surf now looks fun without being spectacular. A polar low passing to the south is sending long period S swells up the pipe. 

In the short run we’ll see the trough deepen into a low pressure system off the South Coast and high pressure slide SE of Tasmania. That will drive an onshore SE tending E/NE flow across Tasmania. We’ll see some long period S swell to 3-4ft across S facing beaches, easing during the day, with some E/NE-NE swell showing to 2-3ft in the a’noon.

Winds tend NE through Wed and freshen with a mix of E/NE to NE swells to 2-3ft with the occ. 4ft set on offer. 

Similar winds for Thurs with small NE swells to 2ft and a last pulse of E’ly swell from the low as it intensified on Tues before dissipating. Expect some 2-3ft sets from the E during the day. 

We’ll see a low approaching from the W on Fri and a strong N-N/NE fetch developing in the NETas swell window (see below). That will generate sizey NE windswells through Fri under freshening N-N/NE winds. Expect size to 4-6ft with some bigger sets and a late switch to more N’ly possibly even NW winds as the low approaches.

Source of NE windswell Fri

Into the weekend and winds shift W as a low slides under Tas a front pushes over the state. That will see conditions clean up but swells will ease as the fetch gets shunted away. Expect surf in the 3ft range Sat easing during the day.

As a front pushes up past the state Sun we’ll see W winds shifting SW then S’ly with a quick spike in short range S swell to 2-3ft during the day.

Next week sees high pressure move NE of the state with N’ly winds developing. We may see some small NE windswell develop Mon or Tues with some long range E/NE swell just tickling Tas during Tues.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how that is shaping up.