Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small pulse of SE swell Wed, easing Thurs
• Tiny leftovers Fri
• S’ly groundswell pulses starting Sat
• Bigger S pulse Sun PM, extending into Mon with light winds
• NE windswell from Mon PM, peaking  Tues as large high moves across Tasman
• Quality E/NE swell likely Thurs/Fri next week

Recap

S-S/SE swell was in the 3ft range yesterday with offshore tending S’ly winds. Size has dropped a bit today into the 2-3ft range with light SW tending S’ly winds and very cold temperatures.

This week and next week (Jul3 - Jul 12)

The synoptic pattern remains dominated by a massive high pressure belt under the continent, currently with two large cells of 1036 and 1037 hPa below either edge of the continent. This eventually converges into one huge high (1042hPa) through the end of the week as it slowly moves towards Tasmania over the weekend and the Tasman Sea into next week. A low in the Tasman is moving north away from the East Tas swell window with some strong, zonal frontal activity  tracking through the deep southern ocean. An active July map, with more action ahead next week.
In the short run we’ll see the current S/SE-SE swell dry up as the fetch moves north with small leftovers to 2ft easing through the day and light SW tending S’ly winds.

W tending SW winds Fri will supply clean conditions as high pressure approaches the state and a strong polar front passes to the south. Expect tiny leftovers from the S/SE to 1-2ft and a marginal amount of S groundswell wrap to a similar size at S facing beaches.

The weekend sees W tending light S’ly winds Sat with more variable winds Sun as high pressure moves across the state. S’ly groundswell wrap should see some 2ft sets on Sat, holding into Sun morning before easing.

High pressure moves into the Tasman next week, setting up a broad E’ly flow, initially in the Coral Sea and then extending into the South pacific and Northern Tasman with a NE flow extending southwards down towards Tasmania. Initially we’ll see small surf Mon, with S groundswell wrap to 2ft but freshening NE winds will see NE windswell build to 2-3ft in the a’noon.

Well positioned fetch for sizey NE windswell next week

This NE windswell should get sizey into Tues, building into the 3-5ft range during the day under fresh NE winds. 

Those winds should tend NW Wed with size easing a notch as a trough pushes the fetch eastwards.

We should see quality E/NE swell then build in Thurs into Fri in the 3-4ft range as the fetch of winds remains in the Tasman.

Lets see how it looks Fri.

Seeya then.