Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jun 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing background E/NE swell for Thu with S/SW tending S/SE winds Thu
• Small boost in E swell Fri with SE winds
• Small surf Sat, with a late kick in new S swell Sun as front pushes through
• Stronger S swell Mon
• Wintry pattern sets in next week with fresh NW winds and strong S swells Thurs

Recap

Still solid yesterday with 6ft+ surf which eases to 4-6ft under SW winds. Today is seeing fun E/NE swell to 4ft with light SW tending S’ly winds. 

This week and next week (Jun 5 - 14)

We’ve got high pressure over the continent, a weak cell in the Coral Sea and a cell over New Zealand, with generally weak pressure gradients over the East Coast. Troughy remnants remain off the North Coast and South Coast interior and these troughs are expected to deepen and reform into another surface low through Fri into the weekend with another round of E'ly infeed swell and S swell although much more subdued than last weekends swell. Details below.

In the short run we’ll see the trough and weak ridge maintain a S’ly flow across East Tas, extending into Fri. Easing E/NE swells tomorrow provide some small fun 2-3ft surf with Fri seeing a small boost in short range E swell from the fetch off the South Coast.

Into the weekend and we’ll see light/variable winds Sat as the trough forms off the NSW Coast with small surf to 2ft and some longer range SE swell to 2-3ft in the a’noon.

Sunday is a different story as a strong front joins the developing low, bringing a fresh S’ly flow and a building S swell in the a’noon to 3ft.

The weekend’s low is connected to a deeper front and a following front  Mon now looks to provide supplementary energy from the S early next week. 

We should see more 3-4ft S swell Mon, easing temporarily before rebuilding Tues to a similar size or notch smaller.  We may see some NE windswell develop Tues from winds off the back of the high. Winds look OK as high pressure moves into the Tasman. SW winds Mon tending S’ly and by Tues we should see pre-frontal winds tend NW-W/NW through the day.

A temporary easing before (as mentioned on Mon) the first winter calibre front and associated low of the season sweeps into the Tasman (see below).

Expect a SW-S flow Wed, tending W’ly through the a’noon and freshening as the front passes through.

We’ll then see a series of mod/strong S’ly pulses  Thurs, and extending through Fri and into next weekend. 

We’ll fill in details as we get closer to the event but these swells should be in excess of 4-5, possibly 6ft at exposed S facing breaks.

Let’s see how they look on Fri.

Seeya then.