Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 23rd Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Marginal NE windswell possible Fri
• Small S swell Sat, bigger Sun with S-SE winds
• Easing but still fun S swell Mon/Tues
• More S swell possible later next week, uncertain forecast, check back Fri

Recap

Tiny swells from the NE have mostly been unrideable yesterday and today in the 0.5-1ft range with W to NW winds.

This week and next (Aug 23 - Sep1)

A cold front and long trough to the north and powerful low pressure to the south are bringing a NW-W winds to Tasmania.  There’s not a great deal of useful swell generating winds associated with winds so only small surf is expected across NETas. The lingering troughy pattern gets much more dynamic over the weekend as a powerful high approaches from the Bight. Storm force low pressure systems tracking under the continent are favouring Victoria for direct swell but we’ll see some long period swells refracting back into the East Tas coast this weekend from this source.

Source of S swell pulses this weekend

In the short run and traces of S swell wrapping into NETas should see some 1-1.5ft surf tomorrow at S facing beaches.

That swell eases into Fri and traces of NE windswell from NW-N winds in Bass Strait offer size in the same range. Just rideable if we are lucky, but not worth working around. 

The weekend looks more active. Small S swells continue to provide some options at S facing beaches in the 1-2ft range although winds from the S won’t be ideal.

Stronger S swell from a strong low passing under the state supplies building surf to 3-5ft on Sun but again, winds won’t be friendly as an approaching high sets up a ridge along the East coast with S-SSE winds all day. 

Into next week and we’ll see plenty of S swell to 3-4ft Mon, easing during the day. Winds should ease and become light/variable as high pressure drifts over the state. 

A slow easing in S swells is likely for Tues but with improved W-NW winds. Size should still be in the 2ft+ range at S facing beaches.

Further ahead and we should see further S swell pulses later next week from a deep low passing under the state. 

Models are still suggesting a trough of low pressure to form in the Tasman, at this stage not well positioned for Tasmania with most swell aimed at NSW/QLD. Still a long way away so we’ll flag it for now and see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then.