Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 28th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulse Thurs with offshore winds
• S swell pulse Fri with offshore winds tending W/SW
• Stronger S swell pulses Sat/Sun with W’ly winds
• S swell extends into Mon, before easing
• Possibly some small NE swell Tues/Wed next week
• Possible S swell later next week if trough/low forms in Tasman- check back Fri for latest

Recap

Small S swells and W’ly winds have combined for basically tiny surf, topping out around a foot at exposed S facing beaches. Flat elsewhere.

This week and next week (Jun 28 - Jul7)

We’ve got a slow moving pattern, quite unusual in terms of going against the grain of a developing El Niño and positive IOD. Monster high pressure approaching WA longitudes, high pressure over the NE of he country and Coral Sea and a series of cold fronts penetrating well into sub-tropical latitudes. A massive NW cloud band is drawing moisture in from the Indian Ocean and Arafura Sea via inland troughs. The cold fronts are our primary swell source through this week and into the weekend.

In the short run and W’ly winds will tend more W/NW through the day as another cold front passes over the state. S swell should build a notch into the 2ft range at S facing beaches.

This pulse should hold through Fri with continuing W’ly winds, likely tending more W/SW compared to W/NW as a front pushes more NE into the Tasman. 

We’re still looking at stronger S swells this weekend as the synoptic pattern shifts eastwards and the squeeze between an approaching high and a series of fronts becomes tighter through the lower and mid-Tasman. Compared to Wed though the development of the massive low pressure gyre near New Zealand has been downgraded with the system failing to deepen and coalesce like it promised. Overlapping swell pulses will still be a feature of this dynamic pattern so keep in mind that slow and active phases will be on tap over the weekend and into early next week.

Sat should see an undersized start with continuing fresh W to W/SW winds before S swells build to 3-4ft through the day.

Plenty of mid period S swell wrap into Sun with surf to 3ft at S exposed breaks under W/SW winds.

Into next week and S swells continue into Mon, with early size to 2-3ft, easing during the day. Winds should be light as high pressure moves over the state, possibly tending light E-NE in the a’noon.

Small S swells are likely to be overlapped by small NE windswell from Tues, into Wed as high pressure sits to the NE of Tasmania and a weak fetch of NE winds extends down from the South Coast to the Island. At this stage, not much size is expected, 2ft or so, but we’ll see how it looks on Fri.

We may see a trough of low pressure form in the lower Tasman as tropical moisture and instability resolves once it enters the Tasman. This offers potential for S swell towards the end of next week as a front pushes into the trough. Again, we’ll need to see how this is looking on Fridays’ notes.

Seeya then.