Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 26th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulses Tues-Thurs with offshore winds
• Stronger S swell pulse Fri with offshore winds
• Stronger S swell pulses Sat/Sun with winds improving Sun
• Long period S-S/SE swell pulses continue next week

Recap

NE-E/NE swell saw 2-3ft surf Sat with improving conditions as winds shifted offshore. Small surf Sun in the 1-2ft range was clean under NW winds. Surf is tiny/flat today with offshore W’ly winds shifting SW in the a’noon. 

This week and next week (Jun 26 - Jul7)

High pressure sitting up at sub-tropical latitudes is allowing a very active series of fronts to penetrate NE into the Tasman Sea. A very slow moving monster high tracking into WA longitudes is anchoring a sustained SW flow as the fronts ride up it’s extended flank from the Southern Ocean into the Tasman.  We’ll see multiple small S swell pulses from this set-up, becoming stronger over the weekend as the fetches become less zonal and extend deeper into the far lower Tasman.

In the short run and fresh W to W/NW winds tomorrow will preside over small S swell wrap in the 1-2ft range. Similar size Wed, with a slight bump in the a’noon. 

More small S swell wraps in at similar sizes through Thurs and into Fri morning, under a W’ly flow.

A fetch of a different magnitude working on an already active sea state Fri should see a much more substantial series of S swell pulses beginning later Fri with surf building to 2-3ft and extending over the weekend.

Plenty of S swell inbound from fronts feeding into a huge low near New Zealand

As swell trains from a deeper fetch arrive we’ll see size ratchet up further Sat into the 4-5ft range with mod/fresh SW winds expected.

That size should hold into Sun as a trailing fetch supplies plenty of back-up S well and brings winds more We’ll again.

Into next week and there’s still a bit of model divergence to get through but as we noted on Fri a large low pressure gyre sets up in NZ longitudes over the weekend with potential for multiple gale to severe gale force fetches around the Islands. These fetches aren’t perfectly aligned for the East Coast of Tas but their sheer strength and size should see plenty of long period S-S/SE swell make landfall next week.

Expect size in the 3-4ft range Mon , rebuilding again Tues from the SSE.

We should see more S/SE pulses mid next week but we’ll see how that is shaping up on Wed.