Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 1st May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent E/NE swell building Mon, peaking Tue with mostly W’ly winds
• Smaller, easing surf Wed ahead of a small E/NE groundswell Thu AM, easing
• Spike in S swell Thurs AM, easing during the day
• Tiny weekend 
• Plenty of S swell next week, possibly sizey

Recap

Tiny over the weekend with just small E/NE swell Sun a’noon. Today has seen building E/NE swell with size to 2-3ft and variable winds tending SW in the a’noon. 

This week and next week (May1 – May 12)

Low pressure troughs off the Far South Coast NSW and SEQLD coast combined with high pressure over the interior and frontal activity to the south are driving a SW’ly flow across the NETas, perfectly timed for a quality E/NE’ly groundswell. We’ll see a slow easing of this swell event over the coming days with mostly offshore winds expected. We should see some small S swell later in the week as a minor front/low pushes into the Tasman before a more substantial S swell event develops late in the weekend/early next week on the back of a cold outbreak and potential deep low in the Tasman.

In the short run and quality E/NE swell peaks tomorrow in the 3-4ft range with offshore winds all day likely.

By Wed we’ll see easing swells with size to 2-3ft early, dropping back to 2ft during the day with a mostly W’ly early, tending fresh SW’ly a a front and small low forms East of Tasmania.

That low will generate some new S swell for Thurs with size in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches, easing during the day and SW winds tending NW as the low moves away and another front approaches from the W. Residual E swell to 2-3ft will be in the mix as well. 

Into the weekend and we should see a small S swell signal fade back to 1ft on Sat with SW/S winds expected.

Not much more size for Sun at this stage with S swell just a notch bigger but still less than 2ft and tiny/flat at most spots with SW winds.

Next week we’re likely to see S swell, potentially sizey as a cold outbreak spawns a low or lows in the Tasman. Although with so much model divergence we’ll just be sketching in the basic pattern here and fine-tuning size and timing through the week. 

EC suggests a major low in the Tasman Mon, moving NE and generating mod S swells under fresh SW winds from Mon/Tues. 

GFS suggests a major frontal progression based on a deep parent low located in the Far Southern Tasman next week, with multiple pulses of moderate S swell expected.

We’ll peg size at strong 3-5ft at this early stage , with upgrades possible (likely). 

Check back in Wed and we’ll see how this active period is shaping up.