Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 26th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun NE windswell building Thurs, peaking Fri with winds rapidly improving, before easing
• Small mixed bag this weekend tending to better quality E/NE swell later Sun
• Good quality E/NE swell building Mon, peaking Tues at sizey levels with light winds expected
• Possible S swell late next week, check back Fri for details

Recap

Not much surf since Mon with surf in the 1ft range both days and light winds, tending freshening N’ly today.

This week and next week (Apr 26 - May5)

Not much change from Mon- we’ve still got a large high in the Tasman located off the Central NSW Coast, with a N’ly fetch developing off the South Coast. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to bud a surface low near New Caledonia over the short term, generating more quality E-E/NE swell as the low drifts through the South Pacific slot and into the Tasman.

In the short run we’ll see increasing N’ly winds and NE windswell through tomorrow, building into the 3ft range with fresh N’ly winds.

Size holds into Fri morning with winds improving rapidly as a front/low approaches from the W and  passes to the south of the Island. That will see winds tend NW, then W/NW through the day with size rapidly easing in the a’noon.

We’re looking at small leftovers for the weekend, groomed by a W’ly flow. 

Have a look later Sun for an increase in new E/NE swell- we may see some forerunners later in the a’noon but Mon remains a better bet. 

Mon look pretty good, light winds under a weak, troughy pressure environment and building quality E/NE swell as the low swings down the inside track (see below). Expect sets to build from 2-3ft to 3ft+ during the day.

Ex tropical low drifting down into the Tasman brings quality E/NE swell for NETas

Tuesday looks equally fun with quality E/NE swell to 4ft and light NW winds early, tending fresher NW during the day (possibly more N’ly).

We’ll then see easing swells Wed, with Thursday a likely low point.

By the end of next week surf prospects will depend on how a frontal progression/low pans out.

We may see  the remains of the tropical low being absorbed into the more temperate storm track, merging with the broad low pressure area and intensifying a S’ly fetch adjacent to the NSW Coast. 

EC is still interested in this scenario with the formation of a Tasman Low late next week and sizey S swell from Fri.

GFS is suggesting a more modest frontal progression into the Tasman before a deeper fetch generates some longer range S swell in the same time frame.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up as well as taking a final pass at the weekend outlook.