Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 5th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Nice spike in S swell Thurs with winds tending NE
• S swell easing Fri wth NE windswell building
• NE windswell holds into Sat AM before easing with good winds early before freshening SW to S’ly winds
• Large S swell Sun, peaking Mon with fresh SSW winds
• Plenty of size Tues, easing from there 
• Small leftovers Wed/Thurs with offshore winds

Recap

Nothing of any note since Mon with tiny surf yesterday and today under a SW flow. Much more dynamic times ahead though. Details below. 

This week and next week (Apr5 - Apr14)

A trough of low pressure off the NSW Mid North Coast is too far north to be a swell source for Eastern Tasmania but a strong low transiting through the Tasman at time of writing is generating useful S swells which are expected to wrap into the east Coast tomorrow.

In the short run we’ll see mid period S swell to 3ft at S facing beaches tomorrow under a variable flow tending NE in the a’noon as a high cell quickly moves NE of the Island into the Tasman Sea. 

S swell eases Good Friday with 3ft sets in the morning and a building trend in NE windswell overlapping the easing S swell. Early variable winds tend mod/fresh NNE-NE through the day with surf building to 3ft from the NE.

Into the weekend and Easter Sat sees a small combo of NE and building S swells into the 3ft range during the day with freshening SW-SSW winds.

Easter Sunday should see a steady upwards trend in S swell, as a strong S swell cycle gathers steam, enough to blow out the cobwebs from our quiet start to Autumn. There’ll be several S swell trains being generated from gales out of Bass Strait and a deeper fetch extending SE of Tasmania north and south. An initial S swell pulse Sun morning should see surf in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches. Much stronger surf then builds into the a’noon into the 6ft range at S facing beaches. Fresh SSW winds are expected.

Gales to strong gales are expected to push northwards adjacent to Tasmania this weekend (see below), generating large S swells for Mon, likely up in the 8-10ft range but it will be stormy due to the proximity of the fetch. Strong SSW winds tend S’ly in the a’noon. 

Into next week and we’ll see easing swells from Tues as the low moves away towards the North Island and swells settle down quickly. Expect solid leftovers in the 6ft range to ease through the day to 4ft with swell direction trending a little more SSE as the fetch moves across the Tasman.

That fetch should supply small levels of SE-ESE swell in the 2ft range for a couple of day through Wed/Thurs and even Fri should see some just rideable surf. Winds look to be light offshore as another low/trough system approaches from the W.

Plenty of action ahead, check back Fri for a last look before the weekend.