Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 31st March)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell spike Sat, easing quickly Sun with mostly W’ly winds
• Quiet start to next week, potential for more S swell Thurs with uncertain outlook
• Potential L swell from the SSE-SE if low forms NE of Tasmania over Easter weekend, check back Mon for updates

Recap

Chunky S swell yesterday saw 3-4ft surf at S facing beaches with NW winds. Surf eased into today under mod SW winds but is now on the way up again with new S swell building to 3ft at S facing beaches.

This weekend and next week (Mar 31 - Apr7)

No great change to the weekend f/cast with a low east of the state moving away and a last cold front sweeping up past the state. The deeper SSW fetch and cold front fetch are seeing increasing S  swells and that should see a peak in size tomorrow with sets to 4ft at S facing beaches, easing during the day under favourable SW tending W’ly winds.

By Sunday we’ll be back to small leftovers, 1-2ft max at S facing beaches and becoming tiny during the day under W’ly winds becoming variable then N’ly during the day as a high pressure cells moves NE of the state. 

Not much surf to start the week leading up to Easter with weak pressure gradients and tiny surf expected Mon and persisting into Wed.

A front passing to the south brings a small flush of S swell Thurs with sets to 3ft at S facing beaches under E-E/NE winds. We may see some small swell from the E/NE-NE develop Thurs as a fetch develops at the entrance to Bass Strait. 

Further into the Easter break and we have a dynamic outlook as a mid latitude low approaches from the Bight. Model runs have suggested this low may move E of Tasmania over the Easter weekend directing gales at the East Coast. Under this scenario we’re looking at a large-X-Large swell event from the SSE-SE developing Sat/Sun with strong winds from the same direction.

Potential for large SSE-SE swell as low drifts NE of Tas over Easter weekend

This isn’t set in stone, other leading global models aren’t interested in this scenario or push back the timing.

Check back Mon and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

In the mean-time, have a great weekend!