Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 20th March)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swells Tues
• Small SE swell Wed/easing Thurs with onshore winds
• Possible small E/NE swell Thurs PM as trough forms off Gippsland coast
• Small S swell Fri
• Stronger S swell pulses this weekend, peaking Sun
• Small surf next week, NE windswell most likely

Recap

Tiny waves Sat in the 1ft range with light winds, Sunday picked a notch to 1-2ft and today we are seeing a slightly stronger S swell signal in the 2ft range at S facing beaches building to 3ft+ at S facing beaches under freshening SW-S winds.

This week and next week (Mar 20 - 31)

A trough in advance of a strong high pressure cell and deeper Southern parent low is bringing a fresh S’ly flow to Eastern Tas today, with conditions rapidly shifting gears tomorrow as the large high drifts East of the state. 

In the short run we’ll see easing S swells with size to 2-3ft at S facing beaches easing back to 2ft or less during the day and early light S’lies tending variable before ending up light N/NE in the a’noon.

We’re looking at a couple of small days as S swell fades out and Etas just gets the edge of a SE swell better aimed at NSW (see below). That will see small 1-2ft S swell Wed tending to 2ft SE swell in the a’noon and fading out though Thurs. Winds won’t be great tending SE Wed, then E/NE Thurs as a small trough of low pressure forms off the Gippsland Coast, generating small E/NE swell to 2-3ft Thurs a’noon.

Not well aimed but ETas gets a small boost in SE swell as this fetch slingshots towards NZ

A strong frontal progression well to the south of Tas is expected to bring a small flush of S swell Fri in the 1-2ft range with light S’lies (possibly variable in the a’noon).

Stronger S swell is then on the menu this weekend as the low and broad fetch of SW gales pushes NE Fri. Expect surf to build into the 2-3ft range Sat with a stronger pulse of S swell wrapping in Sun to 3-4ft at S facing beaches. N’ly winds Sat tend light/variable Sun but we’ll fine-tune winds on Wed. 

Into next week and S swell eases down through Mon as new high pushes E of the state, with winds tending NE off the NSW South Coast seeing small NE windswell develop from Tues.

A troughy pattern suggests low confidence in local winds so check back in Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.