Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E/NE swell Fri
• S’ly swell Fri with a rare SE groundswell supplying some inconsistent sets through Sat
• Fun NE windswell on the cards for Sat, easing Sun
• More small E swell next week, bigger Thurs/Fri

Recap

Fun sized E/NE swell yesterday built into the 3ft range with light winds. Today has seen similar sized surf with clean conditions under a light/variable flow which blew offshore for most of the morning.

This week and next week (Jan25 - Feb3)

The synoptic pattern over and surrounding Australia still has a strong La Niña signature with troughy low pressure areas in the Tasman Sea and an active monsoon trough across Northern Australia. High pressure on the other side of New Zealand is cradling areas of low pressure and maintaining a small, fun E swell signal. Way down south, a storm force low extending from the ice shelf to ocean waters SE of the South Island has generated some rare long period SSE-SE swell which is expected to make landfall late Fri and over the weekend.

In the short run, a front and trough push W’ly winds cross the state for most of Thurs with small leftovers in the 1-2ft range on offer. By a’noon expect a light SE-E flow to establish as high pressure moves SE of the state. 

Light SE-NE winds are on offer for Fri under the influence of a weak high pressure ridge. A passing front brings a small signal of S swell in the 1-2ft range, mixed with a small E/NE swell coming from the Northern Tasman, also in the 1-2ft range. We may see some rare SE groundswell from the other size of New Zealand but Sat is a better bet for that.

Into the weekend and NE winds increase with a fetch developing off the South Coast down to Bass Strait whipping up 3ft of NE windswell by the a’noon, under mod/fresh NE-N winds. In the mix will also be some inconsistent 2-3ft SE groundswell.

Surf eases  through Sun as the NE fetch gets quickly shunted away by a trough and new high pressure ridge, which brings a wind shift to S-SSE during the morning. Expect leftover NE windswell to 2ft through the day.

Flukey/variable winds extend into Mon, with light SE- NE’lies  the most likely outcome, as a new high moves E of Tasmania. 

Winds look to shift back to a light N’ly pattern Tues as a weak high moves NE into the Tasman.

As mentioned last week, E’ly fetches on the Eastern side of the Tasman Sea near the North Island linked to lingering low pressure look to maintain a regime of pulsey, small fun E  swell. Expect small E swell to pad out Mon and Tues with size in the 1-2ft range.

The fetch rebuilds early next week linked to a long, broad tradewind fetch  in the South Pacific slot between the North Island and South Pacific Islands (see below). This fetch retrogrades into the Tasman Sea suggesting a nice boost in E/NE swell likely through Thurs into Fri with size likely to reach 3ft.

Uncertain outlook for winds but check back Fri and we’ll dial those in. Based on current modelling we should see light winds through this period.