Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell pulse Wed PM with offshore winds, holding through Thurs with fresh offshore winds
• Stronger S swell expected Fri PM, easing though next Sat
• Last of the S swell expected Sun
• Plenty of NE swell from Wed next week,check back Fri for updates

Recap

Plenty of fun leftover NE swell yesterday in the 3-4ft range, easing through the day. Conditions were clean early under W’ly winds which tended SW then S’ly through the day. Small leftovers on offer today in the 1-2ft range with new S swell building through the a’noon under freshening SW winds.

This week and next week (Nov2-Nov11)

We’re in the middle of a winter-style pattern more common in August than November with a small low formed in along a front/trough line off the Gippsland Coast accelerating W’ly winds across most of the Eastern seaboard and Tasmania.  A series of deeper fronts and lows are also transiting the lower Tasman as part of this cold outbreak.  While they are not ideally positioned for maximal S swell production up the East Coast we are still looking at some useful S swell pulses over the rest of the week and into the weekend. Following that we are back to a typical summer pattern with plenty of fun NE swell expected next week.

In the short run and an embedded cold front passing over the state tonight leaves a fresh W/SW flow through tomorrow with plenty of S swell expected in the 4ft range at S facing beaches.

High pressure drifts north of Tasmania on Fri and with a small, troughy area E of the Island we should see early SW winds tend to variable breezes before a NE seabreeze sets in. Thursdays pulse extends into Fri with 3ft sets, easing off through the day before a new pulse fills in, rebuilding wave heights to 3-4ft.

Into the weekend and S swell extends into Sat with workable sets to 3ft, easing through the day. A N’ly pattern will start to kick in as a high pressure cell shifts E of Tasmania. Expect light NW winds tending N’ly through the a’noon.

Sunday will be a mop up day with small S swell leftovers to 2ft, dropping back even further during the a’noon and a continued light/mod N’ly flow. 

Next week starts with light winds and tiny surf so you can go about your business without thinking about the surf.

By Tuesday we’ll see a blocking pattern favourable for NE windswell as a high in the Tasman remains slow moving with a fetch of NE winds extending off the South Coast down to Bass Strait. 

Expect NE windswell to begin building Tues PM up into the 3ft range with a freshening N to NE flow.

Under current modelling the fetch stays semi-stationary through Wed/Thurs, helping swell production and we’re on track to see 4ft surf Wed, possibly reaching 4-5ft through Thurs.

We should see a ramp down through Fri as the fetch begins to be displaced by an approaching cut-off low. 

We’re also watching a low pressure system tracking down from the South Pacific down the inside of the North Island next week. This system looks well placed to supply some mid period E/NE energy to East Coast Tas next weekend.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.