Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed June 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Short range S swell spiking Wed, easing a notch Thurs
• Better quality SSE swell Fri, easing into Sat
• More S swell next week

Recap

Plenty of good quality E/NE swell Tues in the 3ft range with light winds. Today has seen a steep increase in S swell into the 4-6ft range at S facing beaches with fresh SW to SSW winds.

This week and next (June1 - June10)

Could not be a more apt synoptic pattern for the first day of Winter. Brisk south-westerly winds and a complex low pressure gyre in the Tasman Sea, with multiple cold fronts and a deep S’ly fetch of gales extending down to 55S have ushered in the first day of Winter. Multiple swell trains are now being generated by this complex cold outbreak, with different period signatures set to impact different areas of the coast. Due to the broad spectrum of swells trains, there should be something for everyone. 

In there short run and the initial blast of S swell from today will ease off through tomorrow with size dropping back from 4ft to 3-4ft during the day and quality improving as winds swing more W then NW during the day.

By Friday longer period swells now angling more SSE should make landfall with size in the 3-5ft range, easing during the day. NW winds in advance of another cold front are expected all day Fri. 

Fronts bring more cold W’ly winds over the weekend with easing S-SSE swells providing a few small leftovers in the 2-3ft range Sat, dropping back to 2ft or less Sunday. 

The winter pattern rolls straight through into next week with more cold fronts, Westerly dominated winds and swells from the S.

A small low forming east of the Island is likely to see a spike in S swell Mon PM, in the 3ft range with fresh W/SW to SW winds.

A deeper fetch associated with the sees a bigger increase Tues up into the 5-6ft range, easing through Wed with winds tending more W’ly through the day.

More complex cold fronts and Tasman lows early next week bring S swells to East Tasmania

Another series of strong fronts is likely to see more S swell pulses Thurs/Fri but it’s too far out to have confidence in the specifics.

Check back Fri for a full update.