Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon May 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Better quality E/NE swell peaking Tues with offshore winds
• Short range S swell spiking Wed, easing a notch Thurs
• Better quality SSE swell Fri, easing into Sat
• More S swell next week

Recap

Small surf in the 1-2ft range over the weekend with light winds. Today has seen a little more E/NE swell with some sets around 2ft, with the odd bigger one and S/SW winds tending W’ly through the day. 

This week and next (May 27 - June3)

A cold front will push into the region overnight with a complex low pressure gyre forming from the front and remnants of the current low which drifted down from the Coral Sea. That system will drive gales across various area of the Tasman Sea, initially out of Bass Strait and adjacent to the Southern NSW Coast, then extending southwards to form a long fetch through the lower Eastern Tasman Sea. The system evolves a bit faster than models indicated Fri, which will put a cap on wave heights but we’re still in for a nice blast of wintery S swell with several pulses this week.

In the short run though a low moving down from the Coral Sea intensified over the weekend and that will send a nice pulse of E/NE swell towards Tasmania peaking tomorrow in the 4ft range with light offshore winds all day.  Pencil in a surf Tues.

By Wed fronts will be pushing past the state with fresh SW to SSW winds on offer. That will see local S swell building into the 5-6ft range but it will be mostly short period stuff so keep expectations pegged.

That initial blast of S swell peaks overnight and settles a few notches into Thurs with sets to 4-5ft, easing a notch and winds improving. They’ll tend lighter SW with a possible late N’ly.

A deep southerly fetch located in the Eastern Tasman as the low pressure gyre tracks E brings better quality SSE swell Fri (see below) with a rebuild in wave heights to 4-5ft and light NW winds providing good surface conditions. 

That swell then eases slowly across Sat with 3ft sets easing to 2-3ft during the day and offshore winds as a new cold front sweeps across the state. 

Into next week and more S swell pulses are on the menu.

Models are in disagreement on the timing of the fronts but it looks like Mon and Tues will see S swell pulses as fronts approach the Tasman Sea.

Check back Wed and we’ll dial in the details.