Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon May 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small SSE groundswell Mon PM, Tues/Wed
• Small NE windswell Wed PM, Thurs, easing Fri
• Better quality E/NE swell on the weekend, easing Mon, check back Wed for updates on size and timing
• S swell expected Tues/Wed with more S swell into the first week of June

Recap

Small S swells were on the menu over the weekend with 2-3ft surf Sat with light winds, grading smaller 2ft Sun and light winds. Size has dropped back into the 1ft range today. 

This week and next (May 23 - June3)

A large (1031 hPa) high has been incredibly sluggish over the weekend, barely moving from it’s position over Tasmania, and as such a ridge along the East Coast has only slightly began to break down. Sub-tropical troughs and the remnants of TC Gina near New Caledonia are maintaining a deep E’ly flow through the Coral Sea while the last in a series of powerful cold fronts are now sweeping up past the South Island of New Zealand with small S to SSE swell pulses to come over the next couple of days from this source.

Small flukey pulses of S swell will pad out the next couple of days but keep expectations low, we’re only talking about some inconsistent 2ft sets, sideband energy from the storm activity under the South Island. Conditions will be clean under light W winds with a’noon NE sea breezes.

Through later Wed we’ll see some small NE windswell pop up as the high meanders into the Tasman and the western flank pushes NE winds down the coast from southern NSW into Bass Strait. That will see a few 2footers Thurs, easing Fri as the fetch gets shunted eastwards.

Over the weekend and light winds and small surf are expected Sat.

A surface low sliding down from QLD drags a fetch of NE-E/NE winds into the Tasman Sea over the weekend and this should see better quality E/NE swell build later Sun, with the timing to be finessed later this week. That should see sets up into the 4-5ft range.

This size then extends into Mon with winds from the W as a major cold outbreak/front pushes through.

That front then brings a burst of S swell Tues/Wed next week with SW winds expected and size provisionally in the 3-4ft range.

Longer term and more cold fronts with S swell are expected into the first week of June.

Check back Wed for the latest update.