Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon February 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building E/NE swell from Mon, extending through most of next week
• Surf getting solid from the NE on Thurs, peaking Fri at L size, slowly easing Sat
• S swell expected Sun
• More E to NE swell expected next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

There was quite a bit of swell on offer over the weekend as a low pressure trough extended a fetch towards Tasmania. Saturday saw surf in the 3ft range with light S’ly winds. That boosted into the 3-4ft range on Sunday with more S to SE winds and size has now climbed up into the 3-4ft range with mod E’ly winds. Lots of and lots of swell on offer this week as a La Niña pattern directly impacts Tasmania.

This weekend and next week (Feb 28 - Mar12)

Long lasting E/NE to NE swell event all week.  

Blocking high pressure straddles the south-east of the continent with centres near New Zealand and Tasmania. This is maintaining a deep E’ly flow, with coastal troughs and a surface low off the NSW North Coast, now moving South. Another tropical depression near New Caledonia is in the process of re-invigorating a long E’ly fetch in the South Pacific corridor, with plenty of E swell on track from this source later in the week. It’s an incredibly dynamic outlook as the close range source and more distant E swell source overlap this week. 

The set-up is unusual for Tasmania in that the low is positioned so far south, that the E to E/NE fetch becomes very well aimed into the swell window.

Long NE fetch aimed straight at the East Coast

That will see swell from the E/NE build through tomorrow into the 4-5ft range, bulking up further during Wed. Winds won’t be great though, straight out of the E at moderate levels. 

The fetch intensifies and moves south through Wed, with surf continuing to build into Thursday, up into the 6ft range with continuing E to E/NE winds. 

Winds tilt more NE to NNE on Fri and with the fetch aimed directly at the East Coast surf will peak in the 6ft+ range, holding that size Sat, before easing slowly Sun.

A trough off Tasmania angles a long NW-SE angled fetch towards Tasmania Sun, with a building S to SE swell Sunday overlapping the NE swell and providing surf in the 3-5ft range from that direction. Winds will be from the S to SE during the day.

Into next week and E to NE swell is expected to rebuild as reinforcing high pressure moves south of Tasmania and the NE fetch is activated agai

Check back Wed and we’ll checkout this possibility.