Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri February 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Close range SE to E/SE swell Sat, building Sun
• Building E/NE swell from Mon, extending through most of next week
• Surf getting solid from the NE on Thurs, peaking Fri at L size, slowly easing Sat
• S swell expected Sun

Recap

Surf was in the 2-3ft range yesterday with light SE winds, and has maintained a similar size today with light S’ly winds as a trough lingers off the South Coast of NSW.

This weekend and next week (Feb 23 - Mar5)

No great change to the weekend f/cast.

A trough off the south coast interacts with a high moving south of the Island. The weekend will have waves both days, albeit of low quality, as the trough stretches out and SE to E/SE winds feeding into the bottom of the trough are well aimed at NE Tasmania. 

That should see surf build into the 3ft range from the E/SE during Sat, building into Sun morning at the 3-4ft range,  before easing during the a’noon.

Winds will be from the same direction as the swell, so keep expectations low as far as quality goes.

During next week a static pattern develops where strong high pressure is positioned far enough south for a strong, deep E’ly flow to impact Tasmania. 

That E’ly flow is energised by tropical depressions squeezing the pressure gradient at various points along  along E to E/NE fetch.

Expect surf from the E/NE  to build into the 4ft range Mon, with SE winds.

A slight dip Tues, is reinforced during the day, rebuildig surf into the 3-4ft range, with winds now tending E/NE as the wind field drops southwards.

Surf builds further through Wed into the 4ft range with E/NE winds.

Later next week we see a large increase as the high pressure moves towards New Zealand and winds off the South Coast of NSW aim up more directly at the East Coast. Expect surf to build into the 5-6ft range Thurs with increasing NE winds.

Plenty of strong NE swell expected Fri/Sat next week from this source

Surf builds further into the 6-8ft range on Fri with fresh NE winds.

This size holds into Sat morning with winds tending NW then W as a front passes over the state. That should see the best surf of the f/cast period.

Sunday then rebuilds from the S as a strong front passes to the South. Expect surf in the 4-5ft range. 

A very active start to Autumn.

Check back Mon for an update and have a great weekend.