Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed February 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Longer period S swell Wed PM, easing Thurs
• Fun NE windswell Wed with NE winds, extending into Thurs with good winds AM
• Small S swell Fri
• Close range SE to E/SE swell Sat, easing Sun\
• Building E/NE swell from Mon, extending through most of next week

Recap

Small S swell in the 2ft range yesterday with SE winds. Today has seen building NE windswell up into the 3-4ft range with freshening N to NE winds. 

This week and next week (Feb 23 - Mar5)

A deep compact low associated with the front has a gale force fetch associated with it as intensifies under the state. This will see a brief pulse of longer period S swell arriving Wed PM, on the 2-3ft range, easing Thurs.

NE flow across Bass Strait from a large (1032 hPa) high new New Zealand is generating NE windswell in the 3-4ft range, and this is expected to peak overnight with leftovers in the 3ft range easing through Thurs. Early N’ly winds then tend SE as a trough moves East of the state. 

The trough sits of the East coast Friday, migrating North during the day, with a proximate fetch seeing a fast up and down of S swell, tending to S/SE swell during the day. Expect size in the 2-3ft range with S/SE winds during the day.

The weekend will have waves both days, albeit of low quality, as the trough stretches out and SE to E/SE winds feeding into the bottom of the trough are well aimed at NE Tasmania. 

That should see surf build into the 3ft range from the E/SE during Sat, holding into Sun morning before easing during the a’noon.

Winds will be from the same direction as the swell, so keep expectations low as far as quality goes.

From next week the trend will be to E/NE swell. This will be generated by the increasing E to E/NE winds in the deep E’ly wind field retrograding S and W towards NSW as a large area of tropical low pressure off the QLD coast starts to deepen and move S. This aims the fetch more directly at Southern NSW, as well as Tasmania.

Expect size to ramp up through Mon into the 3ft range with SSW winds tending SSE during the day, offering up some good options. 

There’s plenty of model divergence from Mon with EC suggesting a deeper E/NE flow through the Lower Tasman adjacent to the South Coast NSW, seeing a further build in E/NE swell through Tues and Wed.

GFS suggests a small trough of low pressure off the coast Mon/tues with a supply of S to SE swell from this system Tues/Wed before E/NE swell rebuilds Wed/Thurs.

Either way there’ll be plenty of swell to welcome Autumn in.

Check back Fri for the latest update.