Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan21)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Surf easing back to tiny for a few days from Fri into mid next week as high pressure parks itself next to Tasmania
• NE windswell on the radar for Thurs/Fri next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Not much surf on offer over the last day with tiny 1ft surf becoming established along the North-East coast. Tiny surf with NE winds continues into the weekend. Details below.

This week and next week (Jan21-Jan28)

Large (1031 HPa) high pressure is now drifting just east of Tasmania, with a smaller reinforcing cell well below the Bight. This is maintaining the ridge of high pressure along most of the East Coast, with a slight and slow easing of pressure gradients  expected over the weekend. An active Monsoon Trough lays across the North of the Continent extending out into the Coral Sea. 

The blocking pattern remains in place for most of next week. First, the initial high maintains position just East of Tasmania with weak pressure gradients and only light N to NE winds in the swell window- not enough to generate any more than a foot or so of weak windswell.

A reinforcing high moves in Wed, at a slightly lower latitude. This sees the weak high pressure ridge reset with a day of SE winds expected but no significant swell swell on offer.

We’ll be looking at Thursday before rideable surf returns as the high pressure cell drifts towards the South Island and a fetch develops off the Gippsland Coast. At present this fetch looks compact but quite strong with 25-30 knots winds, possible even low end gales embedded. That should see NE windswell develop through Thursday up into the 4ft range. 

Size eases through Friday as clearing W’ly winds arrive with a cold front.

This is likely to see a small increase in S swell Sat as the front sweeps past the East Coast.

This is remote in time so it’s likely will be subject to revision on Mon.

Check back then and in the meantime have a great weekend.