Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 29)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswell Tues-Thurs 
• Small S pulse Sat
• Small NE windswell possible Mon next week

Recap

Surf has hung around in the 3ft range over the weekend on the North-East coast of Tasmania, generated by a slow moving trough system in the Central/Southern Tasman Sea, with improving NW winds on Sunday. Size has dropped down into the 2-3ft range today,  notch above f/cast due to the persistent nature of the fetch. NE winds are now developing as the high shifts across the Tasman. 

This week and next week (Nov29-Dec10)

We’re right up to our neck in a troughy La Nina pattern, which continues on through this week. High pressure is sitting just to the East of Tasmania, with the dissipating remains of the weekend’s trough of low pressure linked to a coastal trough extending up into the sub-tropics. More troughs are expected in the Tasman this week before another long, elongated trough occupies the Tasman, this weekend, in a similar pattern to this last weekend’s trough system.

Short term and the western flank of the high creates a NE fetch off the South Coast and extending across Bass Strait through tomorrow to Thursday. This will see workable levels of NE windswell pulsing in the 1-2ft range through this period, likely biggest on Thursday. Not much, but enough for a grovel. 

A cold front then pushes across the state Fri, likely bringing SW to S winds before a rapidly building ridge behind a trough line in the Tasman sees winds from the SSE. 

A brief flush of S swell is likely with this front, with surf Sat in the 2ft range, building into the 3ft range during the day.

The trough is expected to be pushed out into the Tasman as high pressure moves E of Tasmania. That should allow for a broader coverage of S/SSE winds through the Central/Northern Tasman, although low windspeeds and the position of the fetch look to be the main limiting factor for swell generation for Tasmania. 

This sees swell fade quickly through Sun.

Into next week and another high moves into the Tasman Sea Sun/Mon 5-6/12, with a brief fetch of N to NE winds expected to develop off the Gippsland Coast down into Bass Strait. This offers good odds for another round of NE windswell developing Mon into the 3ft range with fresh N’ly winds.

A following high pressure ridge is expected to bring a S’ly change Tues, with low potential for S swell.

In the medium term small levels of E’ly swell from Tradewinds in the Coral Sea and South Pacific are unlikely to be of sufficient strength to impact the East Tasmanian Coast.

Check back Wed for a full update.