Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 26)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• New pulse of SE/ESE swell Sat, holds Sun at a better angle with improving winds
• Surf easing back to tiny Mon
• Small NE windswell Wed PM, Thurs next week

Recap

Not much on offer yesterday with only small, 1-2ft surf from the E. Today a complex trough line and cold front have combined to increase SSE/SE winds adjacent to Tasmania and extending out into the Tasman Sea, with an increase in SSE swell up into the 4ft range and mod/fresh SSE to SE winds accompanying the swell. 

This week and next week (Nov26-Dec3)

Fun SE/ESE swell for the weekend

The long, elongated trough line extending off the NSW Coast and angling in a NW/SE orientation towards New Zealand is now located a bit further north than modelled on Wed. Like the last trough system it’s now located more on the Mid North Coast. That amount to a slight downgrade for Eastern Tasmania as the fetch is now located a bit farther north and aimed more at NSW.

It’s still a useful fetch for the region, with swell rebuilding from this source fetch tomorrow into the 3ft+ range as better angled ESE swell makes landfall through the day.

Sunday looks a better day though, with winds tending light and variable before a light N’ly kicks in. With size in the 3ft range still and a more E’ly angle on offer, there should be plenty of fun options through the day.

Monday sees the downslope of this swell with some leftover 2-3ft sets early, winding down into the 2ft range during the day. Light winds lead to favourable surface conditions making the mop up operation well worthwhile.

A weak troughy pattern then kicks in for most of next week with no real swell generating sources of wind aimed at the East Coast. 

Thats likely to see a couple of marginal/tiny days of surf through Tues/Wed. 

As high pressure drifts across the Tasman, there’s a chance of NE windswell developing Wed, likely peaking Thurs. Models are offering mixed outcomes on the strength of the winds in the fetch, with EC a bit more bullish than GFS. Either way we’re likely looking at a small boost in size Wed a’noon, into the 2ft range, peaking through Thurs in the 2-3ft range. Expect some revision on timing and size as we get closer to the event.

Longer term and a high moving over Tasmania next weekend may bring a small blast of S’ly wind and swell possibly Fri as it briefly ridges up the East Coast.

Confidence is low this far out, so check back in on Mon for a full update.

Until then, have a great weekend.