Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 24)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell peaks at fun levels Wed, eases Thurs
• Strong SSE swell builds Fri with SSE winds
• New pulse of SE/ESE swell Sat, slowly eases Sun with improving winds
• Surf easing back to tiny Mon
• More NE windswell Tues/Wed next week

Recap

Small surf yesterday has built from 1-2ft into a more substantial 2-3ft today as NE windswell builds. Light/mod N’ly winds have been observed along the North-East coast. All in all, a few fun waves have been there for the taking. 

This week and next week (Nov24-Dec3)

Not much change to the f/cast with a dominant high sitting in the Tasman Sea, with a pressure gradient being tightened along the western flank by an approaching complex trough system. Swell from this system is now on the fade as the fetch gets shunted Eastwards by the approaching interior trough. 

That sees easing surf through tomorrow.

Solid SSE/ESE swell event still on track for  Fri.

Models are still solid on a major trough line forming in the Tasman as an interior trough exits the Coast on Friday. 

This trough is expected to exit the Far South Coast and form a long SSE angled fetch on Fri morning as it becomes cradled by a large high moving through the Bight. 

The initial fetch sees surf building steeply Fri up into the 4ft range with fresh SSE winds being generated by the fetch south of the trough line. 

By Sat the fetch will have drawn out into a long SE angled gale force windfield stretched between the South-East of Australia and the South Island. This fetch generates a more SE angled swell with plenty of size, up into the 3-4ft range through Sat, with a light SE flow, possibly tending SW inshore early.

Surf holds in the 3-4ft range Sun but from a more E’ly direction before easing down into the 3ft range during the day, but with light NW winds expected there should be plenty of good to great surf on offer.

Longer term and next week quietens down with a weak troughy pattern expected to deliver only marginal surf from Mon next week. 

Another round of NE windswell is expected to build later Tues, peaking Wed in the 2-3ft range, as N’ly winds develop along the western flank of a high sitting in the Central Tasman. 

Check back Fri for a last look at the weekend’s swell and next week.