Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 19)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Marginal surf this weekend with onshore winds
• Tiny surf continues Mon/Tues
• NE windswell likely building Wed PM, peaking Thurs
• Solid S swell likely Fri

Recap

Small surf has been on the menu since Wed, with 1-2ft surf yesterday and light N'ly winds. Size has remained in that range today with a S'ly change messing up surface conditions.

This weekend and next week (Nov19-25)

The pattern as we described it on Wed remains fundamentally the same, but the position of the moving parts has shifted so there’s some significant changes to the weekend f/cast.

It hinges on an approaching inland low. Previous model runs had the low exiting the Far South Coast on Sun, with a fetch largely  aimed at the Tasmanian East Coast a large swell from the E/NE expected Sun/Mon. Current model runs suggest the low is further north, and unlikely to exit the coast until late Sun evening or even early Mon. The fetch is now no longer aimed into the Tasmanian swell window so the swell due Sun/Mon, in effect, has been downgraded to almost nothing.

So, we’re looking at very small surf for the weekend now, just some minor S swell trains from there weak cold front and trough off the NSW coast today. Expect size less than 2ft both days, with quality hampered by onshore E’ly winds. In short, you’ll struggle to find a rideable wave this weekend.

Marginal conditions continue through Mon and Tuesday.

The outlook improves on Wed. There’s no let up in the troughy pattern with the second half of next week seeing increasing NE winds, as the pressure gradient is tightened on the western flank of the dominant high by (yet!) another complex trough system approaching from the interior. 

That’s offers good odds for increasing NE windswell, from Wed PM, building further into Thurs. Size is likely to build into the 3ft range Wed, rising further into the 3-4ft range Thurs.

By the end of next week a strong frontal system approaches from the Southern Ocean, driving further instability along with the interior troughs.

A S’ly change is on the cards for Fri next week, with potential for a solid boost in S swell during Fri on the East Coast. That could take various forms- once again models are all over the place. The frontal progression below Australia is likely to produce some longer period S’ly swell.

An elongated trough line through the Tasman, may spawn a low East of Tasmania next weekend or generate a broad wind field of SSE winds through the Tasman. 

Confidence is extremely low this far out due to the extreme instability in the synoptic pattern, we’ll monitor over the weekend and report back Mon with a full update.

Until then, have a great weekend.