Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov15)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf Thurs
• Slight bump in S swell Fri, with surfable leftovers Sat AM
• Solid E/NE to E swell Sun PM with strong onshore winds
• Solid E swell Mon, slowly easing Tues and tending more SE Wed with easing winds

Recap

Strong S swell yesterday in the 3-5ft range has eased back into the 3ft range through today,  as a Tasman low drifts away across towards New Zealand. Variable winds have kept clean surface conditions for the most part. 

This week and next week (Nov17-25)

The remnants of the previous low pressure system  are now to the south, and crossing New Zealand, which means it’s swell generating potential for East Coast of Tasmania has now ceased.

Weak high pressure is drifting out from the SE of the country to enter the Tasman Sea at time of writing. Weak fronts are below the country and an inland low is tracking across from WA, tied to the continuing pattern of interior troughiness which is associated with a developing La Nina pattern. This pattern, which has been with us for most of the last few weeks is favourably disposed towards Tasmania for swell production, albeit with some periods of unfavourable winds ahead.

Tomorrow is tiny with unsurfable leftovers so forget about that.

Friday has more potential as a small low forms in a trough line and moves SE of Tas. This brings a moderate S’ly change Fri and some small but potentially useful 2-3ft of S swell from the proximate fetch to the Island. 

This leaves potential for some small S swell leftovers on Sat , in the 2ft range with light winds, mostly NW early tending to light E/SE seabreezes in the a’noon.

Things get potentially juicier on Sun, as an inland low approaches the coast, with a solid ENE/NE infeed into the low expected. While this infeed looks a notch smaller than it did on Mon it’s still a significant swell source for the East Coast. Expect an undersized start on Sun, with only residual S swell in there water. Through the a’noon surf is expected to pick up from the E/NE as the low exits the Far South Coast of NSW, and winds on the southern flank of the low increase.

These winds are primarily aimed at the Gippsland Coast, but are strong enough and broad enough to see significant size- with size building into the 3-4ft range on Sun and holding in the 3-5ft range on Mon. 

Winds improve Monday as NE winds tend W’ly as the low moves away from the Island state. 

This swell should have a nice tail on it as the low drifts away with winds still aimed at the East Coast. That should see plenty of leftover swell in the 3ft+ range Tuesday, veering more SE on Wed and slowly tailing  off. Light S’ly winds are on offer Tues and these winds are expected to tend more W to WNW on Wed.

Longer term and small surf looks likely going into the end of next week and into the weekend. 

By the end of next week, a strong high at southerly latitudes is moving through the Bight suggesting a strong S’ly pattern possibly as early as next weekend. 

Confidence is very low this far out, so we’ll keep monitoring and report back on Fri.