Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov15)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong S swell Tues, with easing leftovers Wed next week with W winds
• Small NE windswell Thurs PM, easing Fri AM
• Solid E/NE to E swell Sun with strong onshore winds
• Solid E/ESE swell Mon, slowly easing with leftovers Tues and easing winds

Recap

Small surf from the SE saw some 2ft surf on Sat, with light winds. That swell source dried up Sun, with only tiny surf- less than 1ft- on offer. A strong cold front now tracking into the Tasman Sea is providing S swell in the 3-5ft range at S exposed beaches today, with fresh SW winds. 

This week and next week (Nov15-25)

A deep mid-latitude low with high pressure support in the Bight and multiple cold fronts has now moved E of Tasmania with W to SW gales pushing out of Bass Strait and a deeper SSW fetch pushing up from the Southern Ocean into the Tasman Sea. It’s a wintry looking system and it has a nice sting in the tail as a small troughy intensification slingshots up into the Tasman Sea through tomorrow, giving another longer period pulse S swell to add onto the main body of the swell.

A couple of S swell days head with size in the 3-5ft range Tuesday morning slowly tailing off during the day but brushed clean by a lingering W/NW  flow.

Leftovers Wed in the 3ft range supply more fun surf with NW winds in the AM, before swell drops right away through the day. 

N’ly winds freshen Thursday, supplying small amounts of NE windswell through Thurs a’noon and into Fri morning. There’s not a great deal in this fetch so keep expectations low, we’re only looking at surf in the sub 2ft range. 

A trough off the NSW South Coast and weak front sweeping past Tasmania on Fri brings a S’ly change and a small flush of S swell through the day, which hangs in at low levels Sat morning before fading into insignificance. Expect S’ly winds Fri, tending N’ly on Sat.

Approaching Low Sun brings solid local swell. An interior low approaches the coast Sun,moving offshore from the Gippsland Coast and  intensifying the NE infeed during the day. This infeed is adjacent to the Tasmanian East Coast , bringing an initial increase in ENE swell during Sunday, with freshening E/NE winds.

The low then drifts close to Tasmania with winds tending more E, even SE and a large local E swell being aimed at the East Coast. 

This is likely to see surf build into the 6-8ft range during Sun with fresh onshore winds.

Large surf from the E/ESE holds in the 6ft range Mon, slowly easing during the day as the low moves away and dissipates, with winds tending more SE to S during the day. Leftovers in the 4ft range should see rideable surf during Tues with easing winds.

Longer Term and surf looks to go quiet into the end of next week, with a mild cold front possibly bringing another round of small S swell into next weekend.

Check back Wed for a full update.