Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov12)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small SE/ESE swell Sat, easing right back Sun with winds tending W'ly Sat PM
• Stronger S swell pulse Mon/Tues next week with SW winds
• Possible NE swell Thurs/Fri next week, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

S swell has been on the menu since Wed, with 3ft surf at S facing beaches yesterday, holding in that size range today, with winds easing from the S and tending SE as a small low drifts away from the Island and leaves a weak ridge in it’s place.  This ridge breaks down through the weekend as a complex low exits the coast north of Tasmania.

This weekend and next week (Nov13-19)

As the low drifts away SE winds along the western and southern flank of the low provide some meaningful swell for the East Coast of Tas from that direction. That should see SSE/SE swell tomorrow in the 3ft range, with early SE winds tending W/NW as a trough and front cross the state. Sure dips down in the a’noon, so you’ll need to be savvy to time the wind change to get the best out of it.

Sunday drops back to tiny surf as that swell source dries up.

The next cold front is tied to a complex, mid-latitude low and sees gales sweeping up from the Southern Ocean adjacent to Tasmania on Monday. The resultant fetch generates a steep rising S swell trend on Mon. Size starts under-sized early, before building into the 4-5ft range during the day at S exposed breaks.

The low becomes slow moving as it transits the Tasman with a secondary fetch tracking north during Mon. This supplies a reinforcing pulse of S/SSE Tues with size in the 3-5ft range, easing during the day with SW to W winds, also easing during the day as the low moves away and local pressure gradients ease.

Leftover swell Wed should see a few 3ft sets before size fades right back, with a light W to SW flow.

Into the end of next week and with a large high pressure moving into the Tasman off the Central NSW Coast we’re likely to see a stiff N’ly fetch develop off the NSW Coast, possibly extending southwards to Bass Strait during Fri. 

Based on current modelling we’re on track to see a round of  NE swell, likely building Thurs and peaking Fri.

Longer term and models are divergent which suggests very low confidence in any numerical weather model predictions for next weekend. An approaching mid-latitude low may bring a S swell for the weekend but we’ll need to come back Mon to dial in specifics.

Check back then and have a great weekend.