Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov8)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Modest S swell pulse Thurs with SW winds
• Possible SE/ESE swell Sat
• Stronger S swell pulse Mon next week with SW winds

Recap

The weekend came in right about f/cast expectations with size in the 3ft range from the NE on Sat, clean under NW winds. Size dropped away quickly on Sun with some small S swell padding out the size and we’re left with only marginal 1-2ft surf today.

This week and next week (Nov8-19)

Pressure gradients are weak across our main swell windows and through the region as an interior trough drifts NE and a weak, troughy area extends out into the Tasman sea, without creating much of a squeeze on a weak high pressure centre over New Zealand. That is creating a soft S’ly fetch adjacent to the NSW Central/South Coast through today and tomorrow before wind swing N’ly again as another troughy/low forms E of Tasmania Thursday. This system is weaker, more compact and more mobile than modelled when we prepared Friday’s notes so the whole surf potential for this week now looks much more subdued.

That leads to a couple of days of small, weak surf before the low shifts East of Tasmania on Thursday.  With the compact low driving a fetch of SW/S winds adjacent to the Tas East Coast we’ll see an increase in S swell through the day with a component of SE swell from the winds wrapping under the low. That will see a rapid rise in size from 2ft up into the 3-4ft range during the day. Winds don’t look too bad, with SSW winds tending WSW as the low moves away.

Size drops away quickly through Fri with the low moving away quickly.

The weekend still looks tricky to call, with another low moving off the interior and forming a separate surface low East or North-east of Tasmania. Models are still offering up mixed messages on this low, with EC placing the low off the Gippsland coast, where a solid ESE infeed is in the swell window for the East Coast and likely to produce a useful pulse of SE/ESE swell through Sat. GFS has the low further north with the fetch right on the cusp of the swell window. We’ll flag a swell from the ESE Sat and confirm details on Wed.

A strong front pushes aggressively NE from the Southern Ocean past Tasmania on Mon, bringing a round of S swell to the East Coast. Expect fresh SW winds and size building into the 3-4ft range during the day. This swell then eases quickly through Tues.

Longer term and surf is likely to ease right back through Tues into the middle of next week. Another round of S swell is possible Thurs/Fri next week, before large high pressure moves into the Tasman, offering a chance of a NE windswell into next weekend.

Check back Wed for a fresh update.