NE swell for Sat, easing quickly through Sun

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov3)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Another round of fun NE windswell, building Sat, quickly easing Sun morning
  • Small S swell Sun PM
  • Small S swell Wed/easing Thurs
  • More S swell potential next weekend, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Leftover NE swell eased quickly through Thursday, down into the 1-2ft range, with light winds. Only tiny surf is on offer today as swell sources reach a low point. More NE swell is incoming for the weekend though.

This weekend and next week (Nov3-12)

With reinforcing high pressure now in the Tasman Sea, we’re on track for another round of NE windswell through Sat, as the pressure gradient gets tightened by an approaching trough complex and winds freshen in the East Tasmanian swell window. That sees NE windswell peak tomorrow in the 3ft range, with fresh N’ly winds expected through the day.

Leftovers on Sun, ease back quickly as a trough then front brings a cooler S’ly change through the day, with fresh S/SE winds expected and a modest increase in S’ly windswell through the a’noon, albeit small and wind affected. Winds ease quickly through Sun a’noon as the front moves away leaving a variable NE/SE flow.

Expect surf to drop right back Mon and stay tiny through Tues and into Wed morning before a low forming off the Gippsland coast extends a S’ly fetch off the East Coast, bringing a rise in S swell and mod/fresh SSW to S’ly winds. No great size is expected because the tail of the fetch is adjacent to the Tasmania, reducing the swell generating potential. Size in the 2ft range builds through Wed and holds into Thurs morning.

Into next weekend and models are subject to a lot of divergence due to the troughiness and instability in the Tasman Sea, so we’ll need to revise these predictions on Mon.

A weak front and change Fri is expected to see a small increase in S swell, possibly tending SE through the day, depending on the position of a trough in the Tasman Sea. 

Potential exists for a bigger S swell pulse Sun, as a stronger front pushes into the Tasman Sea during the day. We’ll need to come back on Mon and see how that is shaping up. Serious revision is likely with all the troughiness in the Tasman.

Check back then and have a great weekend.