Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov3)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell  easing Thurs with fresh S'ly winds developing and small, weak S swell developing
• Another round of solid NE windswell, building Sat, peaking Sun morning before easing into Mon
• Potential for another spike in large NE windswell Fri next week, stay tuned for revisions.

Recap

NE swell has come to life since yesterday with tiny surf early, building into the 3ft range yesterday. Today has seen a much more substantial increase in size with surf building into the 5-6ft range at NE exposed spots and light N’ly winds accompanying the swell.

This week and next week (Nov3-12)

Our block pattern mentioned on Mon has matured with a large 1032 hPa high located near the South Island generating strong N’ly winds down the South Coast NSW and extending offshore from Tasmania. That pattern which generated todays swell will be disrupted by a trough tomorrow which brings a S’ly change, before a new high slips under Tasmania and reinforces the block pattern, which sees N’ly winds rebuild in the Eastern Tasmanian swell window through Saturday.

Short term and the trough tomorrow brings S to SE winds with declining NE swell, and a small amount of short range S swell. Size in the 2-3ft range declines into the 1-2ft range by days end, with mod/fresh S’ly winds on offer.

Friday sees more small surf with winds clocking around through the SE to ESE to NE by days end as the blocking pattern re-sets in the Tasman.

This sees the next round of NE windswell building through Sat as the N’ly fetch freshens adjacent to the Island and extends up the Far South Coast during the day. This brings building NE windswell during the day, with size reaching 3-4ft, after an undersize start. Expect fresh N to NE winds during Saturday.

Sunday sees size from Saturday’s peak hold in the 3-4ft range. Conditions should be fantastic with a front bringing a period of WNW to NW winds before a S’ly change through the day, as the front and a trough develop East of the Island. Size eases quickly through the a’noon, so you’ll want to surf in the morning before the change and before the swell drops off.

Into next week and a weaker troughy pattern in the Central Tasman sea is not expected to generate much useful swell for the NE coast of Tas. Small NE leftovers pad out Mon, with tiny surf expected Tuesday. 

A weak trough/front passing to the SE of Tasmania Wed, may generate a foot or two of S swell but it’s a flukey source so don’t be surprised if it evaporates in Fridays f/cast.

The next swell event looks to be another strong round of NE windswell by the end of next week (12/11). An inland low sees a freshening NE infeed through the lower Tasman by the end of next week. If this NE infeed follows model guidance- which is a big IF- because the extreme troughiness lends low confidence in numerical weather model predictions, we could see another solid NE swell, possibly up into the 6-8ft range.

Due to the low confidence, check back in on Fri and we’ll have a sharper read on it as model guidance begins to clarify the situation.

See you then.