Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 11 August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell Sat as polar low passes under Tas Fri
• Slow moving low provides S swell pulse late Mon, easing Tues, small leftovers Wed

Recap

Not much rideable surf on offer Tuesday but today has seen a small flush of NE windswell being generated by NNW winds in the lower Tasman with wave heights approaching 2ft. 

This week (Aug 9-13)

Not much on offer for the rest of the week as todays NE windswell quickly evaporates through Thursday with strong/gale force W/NW winds developing. Those winds moderate through Friday a notch but surf remains tiny/flat.

This weekend (Aug 14-15) 

A deep low passes to the south of the state overnight Fri13 into Sat. This is an intense storm with seas in excess of 30ft but a very zonal fetch poorly aligned for Nor-East Tas. A better aligned but weaker deep, polar fetch on the south-west flank of the low is expected to generate a  small amount of S swell in the 2ft range at S exposed beaches during Sat. Fresh WNW winds are expected to tend NW during the day and strengthen a notch.

This swell eases back Sun with continuing NW to W winds.

Next week (Aug 16 onwards)

Another intense Southern Ocean storm tied to a complex polar low passes to the south of Tasmania Sun/Mon 15/16 Aug. With severe gales extending from Tasmania down to 55S and a slightly more favourable SSW tilt in the winds which then push up adjacent to SE Tasmania during Tues models are expecting a stronger S swell episode to wrap into NETas during Mon with sets to 3ft at S facing beaches. Winds are expected to be W tending WSW with the passage of the front. 

Surf eases from this source Tuesday with 3ft sets easing during the day and winds swinging W’ly in the wake of the frontal passage.