Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 9 August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small flush of NE windswell late Wed, gone Thurs
• Small refracted S swell Sat, with a reinforcing pulse Sun. W'ly winds easing Sun
• More S swell Tues next week. Stay tuned

Recap

S’ly groundswell came around the corner from an intense storm passing below Tasmania to supply fun 3ft waves at S exposed beaches on Sat. A secondary pulse maintained fun 3ft waves Sun with NW winds. Today surf has eased back into the 1ft range with continuing mod/fresh NW winds.

This week (Aug 9-13)

Tasmania is sandwiched between a strong, mid-latitude W’ly flow and a high drifting into the Tasman directing NW winds over the lower Tasman. That spells tiny/flat surf for North-Eastern Tasmania for the opening half of the week absent swell sources and with ironed out flat by the W'ly component winds. As a cold front approaches Wed, NNW’ly winds freshen adjacent to the NSW coast and out into the Tasman sea. This is expected to generate a small 2ft NE windswell late Wed, quickly ironed flat by strong W’ly Thursday as post front winds strengthen.

This weekend (Aug 14-15) 

A deep low passes to the south of the state overnight Fri13 into Sat. This is an intense storm with seas in excess of 30ft but a very zonal fetch poorly aligned for Nor-East Tas. A small amount of refracted S swell is expected Sat in the 2-3ft range at S exposed beaches.

Slightly more favourable SW winds at the tail of the fetch are expected to see a reinforcing pulse of S’ly swell Sun in a similar size range.

Fresh W’ly winds Sat, ease Sun with the passage of the front and low, providing good conditions.

Next week (Aug 16 onwards)

Another intense Southern Ocean storm tied to a polar low passes to the south of Tasmania Mon/Tues 16/17 Aug. Again, it’s a tricky fetch for the East coast with Tasmania “in the fetch” and the east coast very much in the lee of the storm. Nonetheless, refraction around the Island should see small levels of S swell wrap in during Tuesday. Models are keen on a stronger pulse in the 3-4ft range late Tuesday, but that might be optimistic. Check back Wed for an estimate on size and timing.