Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 6 August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• New refracted S groundswell Sat with NW winds ahead of a late S change, easing Sun with NW winds
• Not much on offer next week
• Possible small S swell next weekend, stay tuned

Recap

Small S swell on Thursday offered up a few rideable 2ft waves at S exposed beaches. Surf has retreated back to tiny/flat today as that swell source disappears.

This weekend (Aug 8-9)

Still on track for fun S’ly groundswell Saturday generated by an intense polar low with a mostly W’ly fetch and a better angled following front with a more favourable SW fetch and a NE track from below 55S up into Tasmanian latitudes.  This system is now passing below the state generating fresh W’ly winds.  S swell will have to wrap a fair way into the NE part of the state but with  the size of the open ocean swell generated we are expecting to see some 3ft sets through Saturday with fresh W’ly winds tending S’ly later as the front passes through. 

Leftover S swell Sun should provide some surfable options early with NW winds before size drops below the surfable threshold. 

Next week (Aug 10 onwards)

Not much on offer unfortunately. A strong high driftng towards New Zealand sets up a NNW flow through the central/southern Tasman adjacent to the NSW coast but at this stage there's too much NW'ly component in the wind to generate any useful NE windswell for the east coast. We'll keep an eye on it over the weekend in case subsequent model runs improve the wind alignment. At least one Global model has a slightly more optimistic outlook for potential NE windswell.

Following that an approaching deep low passes below the state Thurs/Fri with a chance of a refracted S swell Sat. At this stage the winds associated with this low are very W'ly biased which doesn't favour swell production for the East Coast.  More on this in Monday’s notes. Have a great weekend.