Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 4 August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing mix of NE and E swells Thursday with fresh SW winds.
• New refracted S groundswell Sat with NW winds ahead of a late S change, easing Sun with NW winds

Recap

Fun mix of NE swell that tended more E and ESE as a strong infeed into a developing Tasman low east of Gippsland generated swell for NE Tas. Winds were fresh SW.

This week (Aug 4 - 6)

Go into mop-up mode tomorrow as fun sized swells from the Eastern Quadrant ease back with  the Tasman low moves away towards New Zealand and the infeed responsible for the current swell retreats eastwards. Winds from the SW will tend more W’ly through the day, offering clean conditions at beachbreaks. That sees surf back to tiny levels on Friday as swell sources dry up.

This weekend (Aug 8-9)

Still on track for fun S’ly groundswell generated by an intense polar low with a mostly W’ly fetch and a better angled following front with a more favourable SW fetch and a NE track from below 55S up into Tasmanian latitudes. This should produce a fun S'ly groundswell for Saturday with mid-period reinforcing swells for Sunday and Monday. Expect surf in the 3-4ft range during Sat as S swells wrap into the NE corner. Sun should see surf drop back into the 2ft range before a reinforcing pulse brings surf back into the 2-3ft range. Size should ease back through Mon.

Next week (Aug 10 onwards)

Pre-frontal N'ly winds are expected to develop adjacent to the southern NSW coast later Tues into Wed, offering potential for a brief spike in NE windswell Wed, easing Thursday as frontal winds tending NW then W push over the state. There's still some uncertainty over wind direction in the fetch (more unfavourable NW winds will diminish swell prospects). Check back Fri and we'll have a clearer picture about how this event is shaping up.

More in Fridays forecast.