Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 5th February)

Best Days: Northern corners tomorrow, Sunday, Monday morning, Thursday afternoon, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large, easing NE swell tomorrow with N/NW tending NW winds, further Sun with NW tending SW, then S/SE winds
• Small S swell late Sun, easing Mon
• Good E/SE groundswell for Thu PM with NE winds, cleaner and easing Fri

Recap

A building E/SE tending E/NE swell yesterday that kicked above expectations into the afternoon with 6ft sets reported. This swell has eased into this morning, only to be replaced by a solid, building N/NE windswell.

This weekend and next week (Feb 6 - 12)

A mid-latitude low is currently moving in from the west, squeezing a high in the Tasman Sea, with strong NE winds whipping up a rapid increase in N/NE swell.

This fetch will continue to strengthen and grow to our north, and we’re now expected to see an embedded low in the broader low generating an additional fetch of gales on top of a fully developed sea state.

This will super-charge the swell, kicking it to a large, consistent 8ft, if not for the odd sneaky bigger one, easing through the day as the fetch retreats and moves east.

Winds will blow out of the N/NW most of the day tomorrow, favouring northern corners, shifting NW later and then around to the NW tending SW Sunday morning, giving into a late afternoon S/SE change. Size wise the swell will be easing rapidly dropping back from 3-4ft or so Sunday morning, smaller and to 2ft to possibly 3ft Monday morning with a W/SW offshore ahead of NE sea breezes.

Also in the mix Sunday afternoon and more so Monday morning will be a fleeting pulse of S’ly swell from the backside of the low, with a burst of S/SW winds generated through our southern swell window. Sets to 2 to possibly 3ft sets are likely late Sunday, easing from a similar size Monday morning.

Following these swells, we’ve now got a strong E/SE groundswell on the cards for Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, generated by a strong low forming off the south-west tip of New Zealand. At this stage the swell looks fairly decent, peaking in the 4ft range, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!