Fading northerly swell, south for the weekend

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 21st September)

Best Days: Open beaches tomorrow morning, Sunday protected spots, Monday south swell magnets

Recap

A mix of good S'ly groundswell and building N/NE windswell on Saturday, cleanest in northern corners, while Sunday saw the size increase further to 4ft, even bigger into the afternoon.

The swell has held a solid 4ft this morning, with slightly better winds, and a drop in size should have been seen this afternoon.

This weekend and next week (Sep 22 - 27)

The source of the current N/NE swell has left the building. That being an infeed of broad, strong N/NE winds, and with this we'll see the size easing back from 2ft mostly, with the rare 3ft'er possibly on the magnets early.

Winds won't be ideal for these magnets, and cleaner at more open beaches which will be small, with a gusty N tending N/NW breeze.

Wednesday will see winds shift from W/NW to SW but the surf will be tiny to flat.

For the rest of the week there's nothing major on the cards, with a weakening mid-latitude low that'll move across us Thursday not having any decent infeed of S/SE winds on it's western flank once pushing east.

A weak 1-2ft wave may be seen Thursday, but that'll be the best of it.

Of greater importance is a stronger cold outbreak on the weekend, with a deep low due to form in the Tasman Sea, while a broad polar front projects up and past us, feeding into it.

A building S'ly swell with S/SW-S winds is due late Saturday, with a peak Sunday to the 4ft range likely. Winds will linger out of the south though, better Wednesday but small and easing from 2-3ft or so.

More on these developments Wednesday.