A break in the flat spell nears
Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 27th April)
Best Days: Wednesday, Thursday, sometime from the weekend onwards
Recap
No surf on the weekend and similar today.
This week and weekend (Apr 28 – May 3)
After a run of tiny to flat surf, it's good to see some life on the forecast charts with a fun N/NE swell event due to be followed by an episode of southerly swell.
The N/NE swell will be linked to deep low forming just west of our state and stalling on Thursday/Friday, with it squeezing a high in the Tasman Sea.
This will generate the N/NE windswell which will build Wednesday as the front moves in from the west and starts to deepen, with a peak expected overnight, easing Thursday.
A fetch of strong N/NE-N winds are forecast to develop down the southern NSW coast and just off our region Wednesday with building surf to 3ft due later in the day Wednesday with favourable N/NW winds, with the swell easing Thursday from 3ft with offshore W'ly winds as the low starts moving east.
Now, the models diverge regarding when the low will push further east and open up our region to S'ly fetches, with EC slower moving by a day.
With this divergence its too hard to nail down the timing, sizes and local winds for the S'ly swell though by later Saturday it should be on the build with plenty more swell to follow into Sunday and early next week as the low remains slow moving.
Therefore check back here Wednesday and Friday for a clearer idea on these developments.