Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 21st September)

Best Days: Saturday morning south swell magnets, Monday morning south swell magnets, Wednesday, Thursday

Recap

Tiny to flat yesterday and this morning, but a strong new pulse of S'ly groundswell due later today is on track with it hitting Cape Sorell early this morning and also showing in Victoria this afternoon.

We should see sets reach 3ft across south facing beaches, so keep an eye out for a late surf.

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This weekend and week (Sep 22 – 28)

The spike in S'ly swell due later today should peak overnight and ease tomorrow from 2-3ft at south swell magnets, small to tiny into the afternoon.

Winds will be great for south magnets with a morning W/NW offshore and possible weak NE sea breezes.

Sunday morning will start tiny to flat, while a weak cold front pushing up past us should generate a strong fetch of S/SW winds in our southern swell window, generating a building S'ly swell through the day but with S'ly winds.

Monday looks like the best time to surf this swell as it eases back from 3ft across south magnets along with a W/NW offshore, swinging S/SE through the day with another front pushing past us.

Of greater importance are the developments into early-mid next week as a vigorous polar frontal progression develops under and then to the south-east of the state.

This will be linked to a strong node of the Long Wave Trough forming and stalling across New Zealand, with an initial broad fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds setting in motion an active sea state for a slow moving and much stronger fetch of severe-gale SW winds to move over.

This fetch will project towards New Zealand, generating a large long-period S'ly groundswell that's expected to fill in Wednesday and provide strong sets to 6ft through the day at south swell magnets, if not bigger. We'll review the size and timing of the swell on Monday though.

Winds are a little undecided at the moment, so check back here on Monday for a clearer idea. Have a great weekend!