Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 27th November)

Best Days: Friday northern corners, Saturday onwards

Recap

Small clean leftovers out of the NE Saturday morning to 1-2ft at exposed breaks, small again Sunday morning but building into the afternoon though winds didn't swing offshore until after dark unfortunately.

This morning conditions were much cleaner but the swell back to a small and easing 1-2ft ahead of a mid-afternoon S'ly change.

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This week and weekend (Nov 28 – Dec 3)

Today's change is due to a weak surface trough drifting in from the west and across us, but there's no major strength or longevity to this system. We'll see small weak 1-2ft waves max out of the S/SE tomorrow and Wednesday, with similar amounts of lingering background NE swell to an inconsistent 1-2ft at north-east swell magnets.

From Thursday though, things start to get interesting.

As talked about last update, a strengthening high in the Tasman Sea and a deepening surface trough approaching from the west will start to interact with each other, resulting in a strengthening and elongated fetch of NE winds to develop down from the NSW coast, into us.

This will start to take place Thursday with a small increase in NE windswell to 2-3ft through the afternoon, persisting around 3ft+ Friday. The fetch will really start to grow in strength through Friday evening and Saturday though, with building surf to the 4-5ft+ range just as winds start to swing more offshore as the axis of the trough slips slightly east.

The timing on this change is still up in the air, but once it does, the NE swell is expected to drop, though slowly due to a persistent fetch of NE winds off the southern NSW coast.

We'll also see some rebound S'ly swell through Sunday afternoon and Monday, but we'll have to look at the dynamics surrounding all of this once the models start converging over the coming days.