Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 4th July)

Best Days: Saturday morning.

Recap: 

There has been a distinct lack of swell over the past few days, with less than 1ft breaking. Fortunately, winds have been offshore, with clean conditions each day.

This week (Tuesday 5th - Friday 8th):

Conditions are likely to remain fairly small and benign with a lack of decent systems passing through the swell window in the near future.

The next best chance of swell comes on Wednesday as a deep cut-off low shifts off the coast of NSW. Near stationary southeasterly fetches should increase off the northeastern coast of Tasmania along the southern quadrants of this low overnight on Tuesday.

As a result, Wednesday should see fresh swell build to the 4-6ft range by the afternoon, although lacking quality under a gusty south/southeasterly airflow.

As the week wears on, the swell should continue to fill in generated by easterly and east/northeasterly fetches on the distant quadrants of the system. Meanwhile, more local southeasterly fetches should drift east and lose alignment slightly, but continue to provide refracted energy.

The remainder of Thursday and Friday should ebb and pulse between 4-5ft with south/southeasterly breezes persisting before slowly swinging east/southeasterly on Friday afternoon.

Distant southerly groundswell should also fill in from frontal activity over the Southern Ocean, although likely overshadowed by the existing swell. South facing beaches may pick up inconsistent sets in the 2-3ft range on Friday.

Wave quality will be hard to come by. It may be worth finding a protected southern corner where the wind will have less impact, although this may hinder swell size somewhat.

This weekend (Saturday 9th - Sunday 10th):

An intensification within the existing southeasterly fetch should provide the strongest pulse of groundswell on Saturday with sets up around 4-5ft+. Sunday should see the swell drop slightly to around 3-5ft as the fetches gradually shift east and lose alignment.

Light/variable winds are on the cards for Saturday morning, tending onshore in the afternoon leading to a loss of quality. An approaching front should steer an increasing northerly flow over Tasmania on Sunday, leading to dicey conditions, improving later with the potential of gaining an element of westerly in the airflow.

Next week (Monday 11th onward):

An intense east/southeasterly fetch anchored off Cook Strait looks to fire up providing another pulse of easterly energy despite the less than ideal alignment for Monday. Following this, plenty more energy is on the horizon with a large and powerful front following in close pursuit providing another round of southerly energy mid-way throughout next week.