Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 15th June)

Best Days: Thursday

Recap: 

A small and inconsistent east/northeasterly groundswell provided occasional options just over 1ft across open beaches on Tuesday, although this energy has faded back to a benign 0.5ft today.

On the plus side, conditions have remained generally clean each day under a light offshore airflow.

This week (Thursday 16th - Friday 17th):

We are still on track to see our strong, long period southerly groundswell on Thursday, although models have sped up a touch and it looks as though the first forerunners (19 second) will be in the water in the morning, with south facing beaches building to around 3-4ft thereafter.

This swell has been generated by core westerly winds of 50-60kts south of the Bight, pushing east towards the swell window of eastern Tasmania, while only easing a fraction.

It is worth considering however that the very long period nature of this swell (19 seconds) is likely to light up some parts of the coast rather than others. As the long period swells impact deeper in the water column, they can often be steered away from the coast depending on the localised bathymetry, so don’t be surprised if you find a significant difference in wave height between locations.

Consistency should also improve throughout the day as the swell period eases.

Due to the zonal nature of this fetch, the system will move out of the swell window fairly rapidly, causing the swell to drop significantly into Friday. Residual sets should fade from the 2ft range across south facing beaches.

Conditions should remain generally clean throughout Thursday as northwesterly breezes persist, only tending southwesterly on Friday afternoon allowing the clean options to continue.

This weekend (Saturday 18th - Sunday 19th):

Weaker frontal activity looks to continue leading into the weekend, although lacking ideal alignment and consolidation. South facing beaches should see occasional ebbs and pulses around 2ft, with more energy due early next week.

Each morning of the weekend should be generally clean under a light southwesterly breeze, tending seabreezey by the afternoon.

Next week (Friday 20th onward):

Models are suggesting the development of a deep inland low, pushing off the far South Coast of NSW on Monday. A northeasterly in feed late on Sunday into Monday should whip up around 3ft of east/northeasterly swell on Monday, fading slowly on Tuesday only slowed by the more distant extension of this northeasterly fetch. 

The main limiting factor of this fetch is the rapid eastward motion, leaving only a brief period of time for swell generation.

Keep to the open beaches for the most size, particularly the southern ends which will offer the most protection from a gusty southerly breeze. Conditions improve into Tuesday as breezes swing west/southwesterly.

More detail on Friday.