Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 23rd March)

Best Days: Each morning, particularly Friday and Sunday.

Recap: 

Ealry offshore breezes groomed the line up at most spots on Tuesday morning with good quality 3-4ft sets rolling in. Today, the swell has faded a touch further, with easterly energy now being the dominant swell source. Northwesterly breezes are continuing to blow, with occasional period where winds ease and swing onshore.

This week (Thursday 24th - Friday 25th):

East/northeasterly trade energy will be the dominant swell source on Thursday morning whipped up by a good looking trade fetch to the north of New Zealand which we have been monitoring in the past few forecast notes. In terms of size, We should see set in the 2-3ft range early, with hints of more size late in the day.

This trade fetch has developed due to the interaction between a strong ridge to the west of New Zealand and a deepening trough to the northwest. 

The resultant trade-swell generated by the easterly fetches earlier in the week is due to peak more so on Friday with sets in the 3ft across open beaches. Exposed locations and swell magnets have the potential to pick up the odd bigger bomb set, potentially up to 4ft.

We are also due to see a pulse of southerly energy on Thursday generated by a front and small embedded low which is currently moving to the south of Tasmania. Southwesterly core fetches of up to 35-45kts look to move into the Tasmanian swell window later this afternoon, providing a small pulse across the exposed south facing beaches (due to the westerly component of the swell) in the afternoon with sets in the 2ft range.

The early session on Thursday is looking good under a light westerly airflow, although succumbing to a seabreeze later. Friday however looks to see westerly breezes tend northwesterly as a front passes to the south, limiting chances of a seabreeze.

This weekend (Saturday 26th - Sunday 27th) and next week (28th onward):

During the week, the alignment of the main swell generating fetches have been well aligned for the NSW coasts, but have since swung more northeasterly as this trough and embedded low have deepened and are currently traversing the Tasman, becoming more favourably aligned for Tasmania.

One limiting factor of this northeasterly alignment is swell shadow created by New Zealand’s North Island. An increase in size is not expected, but should instead act to slow and easing trend, maintaining east/northeasterly energy over the weekend and into next week.

Better systems look to traverse the Southern Ocean later in the week, the first of which looks to move into the swell window tomorrow, much further south, more intense and broader.

Southerly groundswell off this system should fill in across the magnets on Saturday offering sets in the 3ft range, with a secondary smaller system moving more locally during early stages of the weekend, maintaining surf of a similar size on Sunday, perhaps a touch larger with sets in the 4ft range across the magnets.

The winds scenario for the weekend is looking easily workable with northwesterly breezes tending southwesterly, before a ridge builds early next week.

Broader and less intense fetches will continue to migrate across the southern swell window maintaining energy for south swell magnets into next week, ebbing and pulsing but not falling much further than the 2ft mark at south facing beaches.

By this stage, light offshore breezes will be limited to the early morning, although seabreezes look to cause issues during the afternoon.