Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 29th February)

Best Days: Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning and Friday morning.

Recap: 

Saturday saw a solid east/northeast groundswell increase to the 3-5ft range before peaking on Sunday in the 6ft range. Each morning offered excellent waves under a light northwesterly airflow, holding until mid morning. Seabreezes got the better of the surf on Saturday, while Sunday saw a weak southelry change throughout the day.

Today saw a fresh south swell build across the magnets to around 3-5ft range, with residual east/northeasterly energy fading from around 3-4ft.

This week (Tuesday 1st - Friday 4th) and weekend (Saturday 5th - Sunday 6th):

We are in for a mix of swells on Tuesday. Firstly, residual east/northeasterly energy off the back of the weekend’s peak should fade from the 2-3ft range.

Also in the mix however will be left over southerly swell generated by a broad frontal progression which moved over the region throughout Sunday. Small but intense south/southwesterly core fetches of 50kts within the trailing airflow were responsible for todays kick, but should be on the downward trend from the 3ft range during the day.

Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge has been slowly becoming established over the Tasman sea, steering fairly benign fetches along its western quarters. As a result, a local northeasterly fetch has been increasing today and should continue to do so overnight leading to short range peaky surf in the 2ft range across the open beaches.

Unfortunately however, the local nature of this northeasterly fetch means that quality will be hard to come by. Protected northern corners will be your best bet during the morning.

This fetch looks to persist, although becoming disjointed at times. The northeasterly windswell looks to peak during the overnight hours from Tuesday into Wednesday as a result, before easing from the 2ft+ range across open beaches on Wednesday.

In terms of of local breezes, the situation looks to improve. A northwesterly airflow should persist throughout the morning preceding a weak afternoon change. Make the most of this opportunity, because each swell source then looks to fade.

This northeasterly fetch then looks to retract to the coast line of mainland Australia allowing the resultant swell to ease significantly. This weak and distant fetch is only expected to provide hints of background energy in the following days.

The next most significant pulse looks to fill in on Friday, peaking in the afternoon before fading throughout Saturday morning. This south/southeasterly swell is as a result of an elongated fetch along the southern quadrants of a low which has been developing south of New Zealand today. South facing beaches should build to around 2ft+ on Friday afternoon, easing on Saturday.

Breezes look to prevail from the northwest on Friday morning, tending southeasterly later. The outlook looks less promising for Saturday, with a light onshore breeze lingering from the previous day.

Further ahead (Monday 7th onward):

A northerly fetch looks to re-intensify along the NSW coast on Sunday, extending across Bass Strait into Monday. Open beaches have the potential to build to around 2-3ft late on Monday and into Tuesday should the situation play out. 

More detail on Wednesday.