Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 17th February)

Best Days: Thursday morning and Friday morning.

Recap: 

Tuesday was a fairly quiet day, with residual background energy providing options occasionally reaching the 1ft range. We have seen a lot more size from the south this afternoon however, with magnets picking up sets in the 4-6ft range.

Breezes started off light northwesterly this morning, allowing for fun conditions before becoming limited to the southern corners as breezes swung southwesterly. These more protected spots offered limited options as the size was significantly less.

This week (Thursday 18th - Friday 19th):

The southerly swell which we have seen build over the past few hours all part of a larger scale cut-off low which has been moving over eastern parts of the Tasman Sea. The most active swell generating fetches have been along the western quadrants, steering a 35-40kt southerly captured fetch just off the coast.

The alignment of this captured southerly fetch has shown a small amount of westerly component, which is not ideal for the Tasmanian coastline. However, we still expect to see the swell peak late this evening across south facing beaches, before fading from the 4-6ft range on Thursday.

The left over southerly energy is expected to continue easing during Friday, fading from the 2-3ft range.

Meanwhile, open beaches look to pick up subtle effects of a long range east/northeast groundswell generated by the tightening pressure gradient between Tropical Cyclone Winston and a strong Tasman ridge.

Subtle ebbs and pulses are expected to break across the open beaches in the 2ft range on Thursday and Friday, with the occasional set in the 2ft+ range.

Conditions are looking clean for the early session on Thursday, with light winds prevailing from the west/southwest, easing and becoming light/variable-onshore in the afternoon.

Gusty northwesterly breezes should allow for clean and groomed conditions for the better part of Friday morning, tending southeasterly as the afternoon progresses.

This weekend (Saturday 20th - Sunday 21st):

Off the back of the cut-off low over the Tasman sea, a small southeasterly fetch looks to develop along the southern quadrants. The alignment of this fetch only looks to be aligned to the Tasmanian coast for a short time, before tending more southerly and eventually southwesterly whilst broadening.

Nevertheless, the early stages of Saturday may still see options in the 2ft range across south facing beaches.

More locally, a frontal progression is expected to move south of Tasmania on Friday and although the alignment of the trailing fetches are poor, south magnets have the potential to pick up sets in the 1-2ft range on Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning.

Otherwise, background energy, including the long range east/northeasterly groundswell should provide small options in the 1-2ft range.

Saturday morning is looking workable under a light southwesterly breeze, although tending southeasterly as the morning progresses. Similarly, the early stages of Sunday are looking at light/variable-offshore breezes, but not for long as a seabreeze looks to kick in.

Next week (Monday 22nd onward):

A weak northeasterly fetch looks to set up throughout Sunday, extending from the South Coast of NSW across Bass Strait, with good alignment to northeastern Tasmania. This fetch should provide a small amount of windswell for the open beaches on Monday with peaks in the 2ft range.

The morning should be clean along the open beaches under a northwesterly airflow, but at this stage, the surf will be pretty negligible. By the afternoon when the surf should start to build, the quality is expected to be lacking under a northeasterly breeze.

Further ahead, there are indications of Winston drifting in a southwesterly direction back into the swell window to interact with the stubborn Tasman ridge, potentially providing yet another round of long range east/northeasterly groundswell from around Tuesday/Wednesday.

At this stage, I feel fairly hesitant to make the call. Perhaps it’d be wiser to see how models play out over the coming days.